Majority of Americans think Trump lied to public about investigation, poll suggests

Fewer than half of citizens favour starting impeachment process

A majority of Americans say they oppose calls for congress to launch impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump in the wake of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and whether the president sought to interfere with the probe.

Currently 37 per cent of Americans favour starting the process that could lead to impeachment, a slight dip over the past month, while 56 per cent say they oppose the idea, about the same as a month ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

House Democrats are grappling with the question of how to proceed in the light of Mueller’s findings and the public release of the redacted report, which detailed multiple examples of potential obstruction of justice.

The new survey highlights the dilemma faced by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other leaders in her caucus: while party leaders have sought to play down impeachment talk, worried that engaging in such a process would backfire in the 2020 elections, their political base supports it.

Roughly 6 in 10 Democrats say they support the initiation of such an investigation in the House, with 53 per cent saying they hold that view strongly.

Meanwhile, nearly 9 in 10 Republicans oppose impeachment, with 78 per cent strongly opposed.

About 6 in 10 independents are against impeachment now and independents are more opposed today than they were when measured in a January poll – a sign of the potential political danger for Democrats as they seek to win back key centrist voters in their goal of beating Trump next year.

House Democratic leaders have said they will pursue various investigations, including possible obstruction of justice by the president, although they have so far stopped short of embracing the idea of impeachment itself.

But some Democratic presidential candidates say the Mueller report justifies pursuing such proceedings and are urging house leaders to move ahead.

Trump has repeatedly denounced the investigation, both as it was taking place and since, calling the entire matter a “witch hunt” and allegations of collusion a “hoax”.

The president’s credibility is called into question by a majority of Americans, with 58 per cent saying they believed he has lied to the public about matters under investigation by the special counsel.

One in three say they believe he has told the truth.

Overall, however, the survey found that partisan allegiance colours the views of Americans about what the Mueller report found, what it means and what should be done as a result.

But on one question there was agreement across the political spectrum.

Mr Mueller receives positive marks from both Democrats and Republicans, with 53 per cent of Democrats, 56 per cent of Republicans and 51 per cent of independents saying they believed the report was fair and even-handed.

Fewer than three in 10 of any partisan group says the report was not fair.

That marks a significant shift in attitudes since January, when barely one-fifth of Republicans (22 per cent) thought Mr Mueller’s report would be fair while 62 per cent of Democrats had confidence in the special counsel to issue an evenhanded report.

Mr Mueller’s report said the investigation did not establish that there was a conspiracy among Trump campaign officials to work with the Russians to sabotage the 2016 election, though there were many contacts between campaign associates and Russians with ties to the government detailed in the report.

On the question of obstruction, the report cited a series of examples in which Mr Trump appeared to seek to interfere with Mueller’s investigation, but Mueller said he believed Department of Justice policy that says the president cannot be indicted in office also meant he should draw no conclusion as to whether the president committed a crime.

For that reason, investigations did not offer a conclusion as to whether the president’s actions constituted obstruction.

Attorney General William Barr declared that the findings did not justify a criminal charge of obstruction.

The evidence of interference presented in the report has spurred Democrats to push for documents, hearings and testimony from some current or former Trump administration officials, which is seen as a prelude to possible impeachment proceedings.

Mr Trump said earlier this week he opposes such testimony and will fight any subpoenas issued by house Democrats, setting up a lengthy legal clash and a standoff between the executive and legislative branches.

The president has declared “total exoneration” by the Mueller report, despite the clear statement in the report that investigators did not reach that conclusion.

Asked their view of whether the report cleared Mr Trump of all wrongdoing, 53 per cent of Americans say it did not while 31 per cent say it did.

Among Republicans, 61 per cent say they believe Mueller’s investigation cleared Mr Trump of all wrongdoing, while 87 per cent of Democrats say it did not.

On the question of whether Trump did or did not try to obstruct Mr Mueller’s probe, 47 per cent say he did try to interfere while 41 per cent say he did not.

This finding masks lopsided opinions among partisans.

Roughly eight in 10 Democrats say Trump tried to interfere with the investigation in a way that amounts to obstruction of justice while almost eight in 10 Republicans say he didn’t do this.

In the current Post-ABC poll, Mr Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 39 per cent, a statistically insignificant change from January when it was 37 per cent.

Among registered voters, his approval rating is 42 per cent. His disapproval rating among all adults (and among registered voters) is at 54 per cent, down slightly from 58 per cent in January.

At the time of the earlier survey, Trump and congressional Democrats were in a dispute over funding for a border wall, which had led to a partial shutdown of the government.

A 58 per cent majority of Americans say the Mueller report has not changed their impression of the Trump administration.

Among those whose views have changed, 23 per cent say they view the administration more negatively while 11 per cent view it more positively.

Slightly more than one in three Americans say the Mueller investigation makes them less likely to support Trump’s re-election in 2020, while 14 per cent say they are more likely and a plurality of 46 per cent say the findings are not a factor in their choice for the next election.

Not surprisingly, the biggest block of those who say they are more likely to oppose Trump for re-election is among Democrats.

The survey found a clear partisan split on the question of whether, based on the Mueller report and other available information, the Russian efforts to interfere in the 2016 election undermine the legitimacy of the outcome.

Overall, 49 per cent say it did not rise to that level while 42 per cent said the Russian role undermined the election’s legitimacy.

Roughly seven in 10 Democrats say it did while about eight in 10 Republicans said it did not.

Looking forward, 76 per cent of Democrats say possible Russian interference represents a threat – either major or not so major – to the legitimacy of the 2020 election while 61 per cent of Republicans said it does not.

Support for impeachment is higher among Americans under the age of 40 than among those older.

It is highest among African Americans, 69 per cent of whom say they favour it.

The strongest opposition comes from white evangelical Christians, white men without college degrees, white mainline Protestants and white Catholics. Support is higher in the northeast and the west than it is in the south and midwest of the US.

The poll was conducted by telephone from 22-25 April among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, with 65 per cent reached on cellphones and 35 per cent on landlines.

Overall results have a 3.5-percentage-point margin of sampling error for the full sample.

The Washington Post