Noted oddsmaker JD Vance says Trump has a 60% chance to win the election
Ohio senator polls shouldn’t be trusted because ‘if you’re a higher education level Democrat, you’re much more willing to answer pollster questions’
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Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance suggested that former President Donald Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning the November election during an appearance on a podcast - despite the Ohio senator having no background in oddsmaking.
Vance was a guest on the Tuesday episode of comedian Theo Von’s podcast This Past Weekend. During the taping of the program, Vance was shown a projection by the betting site Kalshi that gave Trump a 57 percent chance of victory.
“Honestly, I think that chart’s about right,” he said. “I think that we’ve probably got about a 60 percent chance of winning.”
Candidates for public office are usually publically confident about their chances of winning but rarely make specific predictions. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has argued that she’s the “underdog” in this race.
Vance added that voters “shouldn’t trust” the polls regardless of who’s in the lead, saying that Harris backers are likelier to take part in polls.
“If you’re a Democrat, especially if you’re a higher education level Democrat, you’re much more willing to answer pollster questions,” he said.
“So it’s very hard to get an accurate sample,” he added.
“You can’t trust this stuff,” Vance said in reference to the polls, adding that “You got to assume that you just got to work your ass off.”
Polling has consistently shown a 50-50 race between Trump and Harris, but betting markets have had Trump as the likely winner since the start of this month, Business Insider noted.
During the podcast, Von said that in a capitalist “society,” the betting markets are a “good tracker” for predicting who might win the election.
“It’s people putting their money down,” the comedian said. “It’s people saying ‘This is what I think,’ right? With my money.”
However, the betting markets can be swayed by small groups of wealthy users, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that four accounts owned by the same entity have bet a total of $30 million that Trump will eke out a victory in November.
On Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning to Harris’s 42 percent. The former president was also ahead on Polymarket, with a 63 percent chance to Harris’s 37 percent.
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