Will Trump be convicted in the 2021 impeachment trial?

Senate impeachment trial has seen Democrats release dramatic footage from the Capitol riot

Donald Trump's historic second Senate impeachment trial is underway.

The House voted to impeach Mr Trump for an unprecedented second time on 13 January, accusing him of "incitement to insurrection" over the US Capitol riot that left five people dead, the ballot passing 232-197 with 10 Republicans crossing the aisle to side with their opposition.

Democrats then urged then-majority leader Mitch McConnell to call an emergency session of the upper chamber of Congress to begin the trial early in an attempt to convict and remove the 45th president from office, only for Mr McConnell to decline, arguing that a fair hearing would be impossible to arrange in that time frame and insisting it should start after the inauguration of Joe Biden on 20 January.

The trial began on 9 February, a date it was argued would give Mr Trump's legal team time to prepare the case and file briefs.

How long could it take to play out?

There is no set timeline for the length of an impeachment trial, and numerous factors – such as whether or not witnesses will be allowed to testify – can affect the time the proceedings take. 

Mr Trump’s first impeachment trial lasted about three weeks. 

Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial, however, took nearly two months. 

How likely is the Senate to convict the former president?

The likelihood of a conviction appears increasingly slim, as Republican senators have closed ranks in recent days, speaking out against the House Democrat-led impeachment efforts.

Mr Trump's own defence team and supporters like Arkansas GOP senator Tom Cotton have argued that the proceeding is in violation of the US Constitution. Mr Cotton insists impeachment is intended for office holders only, its function is to remove a sitting president, not a private citizen.

But numerous constitutional law experts have argued that Mr Cotton's argument is incorrect and believe it would be defeated if it were to go to court.

In order to secure a conviction, 17 Senate Republicans would have to vote against Mr Trump, which seems an improbable outcome.

It is unclear which - if any - Senate Republicans would break away and vote in league with their Democratic counterparts, who will likely overwhelmingly vote in favour of conviction.

However, – six Republican senators voted to go ahead with the impeachment trial, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Ben Sasse of Nebraksa, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. 

Democrats need 67 votes to convict Mr Trump, and most observers believe they have little chance of getting even close to that many.

Senator Mitt Romney was the only Republican to vote to convict Mr Trump during his first impeachment trial, though it is unclear how he will vote in the upcoming proceedings, although he too has pinned the blame for the siege on the US Capitol on 6 January on the former president's incendiary rhetoric.