More money on Trump? Harris loses lead in betting odds despite polling success

Donald Trump overtakes Kamala Harris on Betfair, as bettors put more money on the former president

The betting odds are now in Donald Trump’s favor, after Vice PresidentKamala Harris took the lead earlier this month, according to data from betting platform Betfair.

The betting odds for the winner of 2024’s presidential election currently stand at 51 percent (21/20) for Trump, and 48 (11/10) percent for Harris.

This is despite the fact that more bets have been taken out on Harris in the past 24 hours (40 percent of bets) as voters across the United States tune in to the Democratic National Convention this week.

Though fewer bets have been placed in favor of Trump winning the presidential election (30 percent of bets) in the past day, Trump’s odds still overtook Harris’s lead on August 20, and have continued to climb.

(Betfair)

This is because Trump has received higher-value bets in the past day, with 53 percent of the money staked in favor of a Trump presidency, compared to 48 percent for Harris.

Since August 20, bets worth $439,118 have been placed on Trump winning the US election, compared to $401,721 for Harris.

In early August, Harris had overtaken Trump’s odds on Betfair for the first time, and held the lead ever since. Her best odds were on August 15.

Overall though, the polls still show that Harris has better odds, with an average +2.9 point lead over Trump nationally and a slight lead in all swing states except Nevada.

An earlier analysis by TheIndependent showed that bets on Harris becoming the next president of the United States began flowing in the weeks before President Joe Biden bowed out of the 2024 race, with an increase in bets on PredictIt following the Biden-Trump debate.

Now, the two candidates are neck-in-neck on betting odds, thanks to a slightly smaller number of gamblers hedging bigger bets on Trump.

This dynamic echoes the emerging fundraising trends for the two candidates; recent reporting shows that Trump’s campaign has been largely financed by big-money donations, while the Harris campaign broke records for the highest number of grassroots donations in one month in presidential history.

“Their odds have completely flipped in the last 24 hours, and the betting market is now as tight as it has been since April, when Joe Biden and Trump were neck and neck,” Sam Rosbottom from Betfair explained.

“Just hours before Barack Obama’s speech Donald Trump retook the lead in the race to the White House on the Betfair Exchange. Overnight that lead has widened and he is now the odds-on favorite.”

“With just under three months to go until polling day, we’re expecting to see plenty more swings and movement on the market in that time as the campaigns ramp up,” he added.