Democrats dominating state races isn't a foolproof sign they will win big in 2018, say experts

But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warns that the results should be a 'giant stop sign' for the Republican tax plan

Top Democrats hold a news conference to criticise the Republican tax reform being debated in Congress (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (AP)

Voters may have rebuked Donald Trump on election night, but wins for Democratic candidates in already left-leaning states are not a foolproof sign that the party will dominate during next year’s midterm races, experts and pundits say.

To win a majority in the US House of Representatives next year, Democrats must flip 24 Republican-held seats as well as successfully defend 10 incumbent senators running for re-election in states that Trump won in 2016.

In the Senate, Democrats only need a net gain of three seats in the 100-member Senate to have a majority. But they are also defending 25 seats – 10 of which are in states that Mr Trump won.

“I think one commentator had it right the other day when noting that it is easy to place too much weight on the Virginia governor's race because it is an off-off election year and it's just about the only real race to look at right now,” Mark Peterson, a political science professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, told The Independent.

“That gives it attention but perhaps inflates its actual significance,” he said.

He added that there was “more favourable signalling for the Democrats than I anticipated”, despite noting that “it's important, again, not to over interpret the data.”

“But these outcomes must have elevated concerns among Republicans running in 2018” in areas that are more Democratic-leaning, Mr Peterson said.

As well as the maths, the Democratic Party must deal with a range of internal divisions over tactics and policy that threaten to create more disunity.

While Tuesday’s election results may not be a great indicator of what is to come in 2018, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that they should be a “giant stop sign” for the Republican tax plan, which he said hurts the suburbs by eliminating the state and local tax deduction.

The House tax bill currently calls for limiting the deduction – a possible sticking point for legislators from high-tax states such as New York and New Jersey, where constituents greatly benefit from it.

“You want to pass this tax bill? You want to hurt the suburbs? Make our day,” Mr Schumer said, who has declared that the election results show that suburbs don’t like Mr Trump.

Along with winning notable gubernatorial races in both Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats also made gains in the Virginia legislature – with the election of the commonwealth’s first transgender legislator – and inroads in suburban areas rich with professionals and those with college degrees.

Nearly six in 10 Virginia voters said they disapproved of the job Mr Trump was doing as President, according to exit polls, and twice as many people said they were motivated to go to the polls to reject him than those motivated to support him.

Ralph Northam, the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia, pummelled Republican Ed Gillespie, winning 54 per cent of the vote.

In his victory speech, Mr Northam – a 58-year-old pediatrician and Army veteran – said, “Virginia has told us to end the divisiveness.”

On Wednesday, at a news conference at Virginia's Capitol Mr Northam added: “I think what this message was yesterday that Virginia sent not only to this country, but to this world, is that the divisiveness, the hatred, the bigotry, the politics that is tearing this country apart, that's not the United States of America that people love”.

Nr Northam promised to govern in a “Virginia Way” that promotes compromise and honest disagreements. He said his areas of focus would include improving rural Virginia's economy and expanding health care coverage for the state's poor.

While on a trip in Asia, Mr Trump appeared to explain away the loss – the only one he has addressed so far – by saying that Mr Gillespie had not embraced his policies.

“Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for,” Mr Trump tweeted. “Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!c

The commonwealth went to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in last year’s presidential race.

Later, from Beijing, Mr Trump appeared more concerned with his own election victory a year ago - tweeting: “Congratulations to all of the 'DEPLORABLES' and the millions of people who gave us a MASSIVE (304-227) Electoral College landslide victory!”

Mr Trump posted a photo of himself with a collection of former campaign aides turned White House staffers.

Ms Clinton was criticised during the campaign for referring to half of Mr Trump's supporters as belonging in “a basket of deplorables”.

Other Republicans and Democrats were quick to link the President to the losses.

“I do believe that this is a referendum on this administration,” said Republican US Congressman Scott Taylor of the swing Virginia Beach when speaking with the New York Times.

“I certainly didn’t see this ass-kicking coming; this is pretty stunning,” Democratic Senator Chris Murphy told Politico. “Republicans have two problems: their president and their agenda. And I don’t think either of those liabilities are disappearing anytime soon.”

Following Mr Northam’s victory, Democrats are able to say they successfully ran an anti-Trump campaign on a statewide level – and are likely to re-employ that strategy again and again during 2018’s key congressional and gubernatorial races.

The conditions are there for a big result in 2018. The President’s approval rating is stuck in the 30 per cent range, and the party in control of the White House almost always struggles in mid-term elections.

This year, high-profile races had generally been fought in reliably Republican areas —until Tuesday.

The big question in 2018 might prove to be whether Democrats can have it all: Will it be possible to combine a Virginia-like near sweep of Republicans in Clinton-supporting districts?And will they be able to win white working-class districts that had been the preserves of Mr Trump? If they can do both, they may be able to retake the House.