Trump is in trouble – even his most ardent fans could turn against him

The former president has so far convinced his fans that the allegations against him are a hoax. That could be about to change, writes Andrew Feinberg

The former president maintains that he has done nothing wrong (US Justice Department)

How badly has Donald Trump stepped in it? If you ask national security law experts, the answer is badly. Extremely badly.

The twice-impeached, now twice-indicted former president on Thursday shocked the world by revealing that he faces charges for what he disparagingly calls the “boxes hoax” – his alleged unlawful retention of national defence information and his alleged obstruction of a year-long Department of Justice probe into how he ended up with highly classified secrets at his Florida beach club turned home and office.

In a string of outraged missives posted to his bespoke social media platform, Truth Social, Mr Trump laid out what will be his main political arguments against a criminal case that could, if things go badly, send him to prison for what would amount to a life sentence.

The former president maintains that he has done nothing wrong, and that other presidents – including Joe Biden – have done exactly the same things that will land him in the dock at his arraignment on Tuesday. He also holds that the fact that others have not been prosecuted, while he is facing charges, is evidence of a “two-tiered justice system” that targets Republicans while letting Mr Biden and his Democratic allies remain unscathed.

To a casual observer, Mr Trump’s arguments might, perhaps, have some merit. After all, Mr Biden’s attorneys recently allowed an FBI team to search his Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, beach house after a similar search of his long-time home in Wilmington turned up at least one classified document, and after searches of other locations by his lawyers found other similar documents (which were promptly turned over to the FBI).

The former president is also quite fond of referring to a years-old case in which a court found that Bill Clinton could not be compelled to turn over recordings of interviews he’d done with a historian during his presidency, and has often recalled how federal prosecutors declined to charge his 2016 election opponent, Hillary Clinton, in relation to classified information found on the private email server she used while secretary of state.

Bizarrely, he’s even invoked arrangements made by his predecessors to house the records created during their respective administrations, with the aim of convincing his followers that it’s perfectly normal for ex-presidents to take whatever records they please and do whatever they want with them.

Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to reporters on Friday in Washington (AP)

Mr Trump has at least some reason to believe that this strategy could bear fruit for him.

Over his seven-plus years in public life as a politician, he has excelled at convincing his cult-like follower base and the Republican office-holders who live in fear of his rabid fans that any negative development in any investigation into his conduct is part of a long series of “hoaxes”.

The result has been to virtually inoculate a wide swath of the American public against any negative information about him, and to convince that same cohort of Americans that the entire American criminal justice apparatus has been weaponised in service of a single political party.

But Mr Trump won’t be able to do this for ever. On Tuesday, a judge will unseal the criminal indictment against him, making public exactly what the Department of Justice is alleging in this unprecedented prosecution of a former chief executive.

Based on what is known thus far, the former president faces serious criminal jeopardy in his adopted home state. The government is known to have a recording of him admitting that he was in possession of a highly classified document – and showing it to people who were not cleared to see it – months after his presidency had come to an end.

That, according to lawyers and experts, could be the whole ball of wax: evidence that even the most pro-Trump juror will be unable to ignore.

Add in the high likelihood that Mr Trump will face a further indictment in Fulton County, Georgia, as well as the possibility that the DOJ could seek yet another indictment for his effort to overturn the 2020 election, and Mr Trump’s summer looks to be one of court appearances scheduled in between campaign appearances.

He may win the GOP nomination next year, but the mounting criminal cases against him may yet drag him down before next November.