Poll shows Donald Trump dominating GOP field as rivals sputter

Ex-president is expected to skip fourth GOP debate as he spurns rivals

Ahead of the fourth GOP debate in Alabama, Donald Trump is in his most comfortable polling position yet.

The ex-president remains atop the GOP field in a major way, having consolidated support from six in 10 Republican voters nationally according to a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll released on Monday. Though Mr Trump will not appear this Wednesday for the debate held by NewsNation alongside his GOP fellows, his decision to skip the 2023-24 debate cycle appears to not have hurt his chances in the slightest.

Indeed, the poll shows few pieces of good news for his opponents. Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley are statistically tied, at 11 and 10 per cent respectively, while the former president’s base of support appears to trust him more on the most important issues to voters this year, including the economy.

Mr DeSantis, who has seen his campaign flagging for months, remains the second choice of a much wider segment of the party than any other candidate. But even that suggests that his base is more closely aligned with Mr Trump’s, and suggests that the former president’s support could surge even higher were the Florida governor to drop out.

His advantage on the issue of the economy will be a key strength going into a general election with Joe Biden. While the poll did not measure head-to-head matchups between Mr Biden and any of the GOP candidates, it did examine his approval rating and Americans’ feelings on various economic, social and foreign policy issues. Mr Biden’s approval rating sat at 41 per cent, while a clear majority of Americans including 45 per cent of voters in his own party say the country is on the wrong track.

On that note: Mr Biden’s cheerleading about job creation is falling on deaf ears. While such talk may have constituted an effective strategy for previous campaigns, the issue of unemployment was by far the lowest-rated in terms of importance to voters of any domestic issue surveyed. Far more important is the bank acccount-draining inflation that has sent food and energy prices, along with housing and other sectors, spiraling out of control; while prices have been dropping now for weeks, some areas of consumer goods remain stubbornly high and the residual effects of many months of increased spending for basic goods remain present and raw. Crime and immigration, too, ranked higher among Americans’ concerns than did unemployment.

Meanwhile, the incumbent president’s troubles on the foreign policy front continue to deepen. The numbers are now clear: as many as one in four Americans believe that the president and the US need to take a more active role in pressuring both Hamas and the Israeli government into reaching a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while simultaneously fully opposing military aid to the Israeli government. That percentage is nearly as high as the combined shares of Americans who believe that the US should send troops to Gaza to support Israel and those who think that the US should send unconditional military aid, but not troops. Furthermore, nearly 20 per cent of Americans believe that any military aid should be conditioned with demands for protections of civilians in Gaza.

In general, public opinion regarding Israel’s military response to the 7 October attack by Hamas (as well as the US’s role in supporting that response) has turned against both the president and the Israeli government. Nearly 30 per cent of Democrats are opposed to President Biden’s handling of the war specifically. His numbers on the issue with Republicans and independents are even worse, suggesting that he has been unsuccessful in convincing either camp of his intentions.

The NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll was conducted 26 and 27 November. The margin of error varied by question.