Trump would lose heavily to Michelle Obama, Oprah or Joe Biden in 2020 presidential election, poll shows

Even Hillary Clinton would triumph at the second time of asking, survey suggests

Donald Trump would lose the 2020 presidential election if opposed by any one of a string of female candidates, including Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren and even Oprah Winfrey, a new poll has claimed.

Hillary Clinton would beat the Republican by six points, the Axios poll suggested, though Ms Obama would triumph by an enormous 16-point margin. Kirsten Gillibrand, the New York senator, was tipped to beat Mr Trump by eight points, 50 to 42.

However, nearly half – 47 per cent – of respondents to the survey, conducted before the midterm elections in which Mr Trump lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats, said they already held a “strongly unfavourable” opinion of the president two years into his tenure.

Axios and SurveyMonkey asked 9,908 people across two polls who they would vote for if the 2020 election were held today. The larger sample, of 6,497 people, had an error margin of 2.5 per cent and the smaller one had a 1.5-per-cent error estimate.

2020 Election

Who would win?

Hillary Clinton 50–44 Trump

Michelle Obama 56–40 Trump

Kirsten Gillibrand 50–42 Trump

Oprah Winfrey 54–40 Trump

Kamala Harris 52–41 Trump

Joe Biden 54–42 Trump

Elizabeth Warren 50–45 Trump

(Axios/SurveyMonkey unweighted numbers)

Joe Biden would also beat Mr Trump if put up by the Democrats in two years’ time, the survey suggested – though by that point the former vice president would be approaching 78 years old. In 2016 Mr Trump was the oldest person to become US president, at 71.

Ms Obama and Mr Trump have engaged in a very public feud in recent days as the former first lady promotes her memoir, in which she says she will never forgive the billionaire for promoting the so-called birther conspiracy that claimed her husband had not been born in the US.

While Americans’ perceptions of their president’s performance has been consistently unfavourable over the last two years, Mr Trump defied pollsters before the presidential election in 2016 and these numbers come from a population sample already deeply sceptical of his leadership.

In addition, some of the women put up against him in this poll lack brand recognition, researchers found. When asked their opinion of Kamala Harris, Ms Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar, more than half the total respondents said they did not know enough about any of them to form a view.

Ms Clinton also faces opposition from a chunk of her own party and people who identify as independent; their stance even has its own hashtag, #NeverHillary.

Beto O’Rourke, who lost his Texas Senate race more narrowly than the incumbent, Ted Cruz, might have liked, was not included in the poll. Observers have suggested the Democrat could run against Mr Trump in 2020 after his deployment of charismatic video clips stoked Democratic fervour during the midterms.

A record number of women were elevated to national office in last week’s elections, including the first two female Muslim congresswomen.

Democrats’ capture of the House will mean greater scrutiny of Mr Trump and his agenda, though the president warned that any collegiate, bipartisan legislative work would depend on his opponents refraining from investigating his affairs.