Super Tuesday 2024: Key races to watch

Presidential primaries may not hold many surprises but down-ballot battles promise plenty of drama

The most important date in the US primary calendar arrives on Tuesday 5 March as voters in 15 states and one territory get their chance to have their say on their preferred candidates for the presidency.

Residents of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, plus American Samoa, will all be filling out their ballot papers on Super Tuesday.

As it stands, Donald Trump looks all but certain to be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee once again in 2024, having already chalked up big wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the US Virgin Islands, South Carolina, Michigan, Idaho and Missouri primaries and had any doubts about his place on ballot papers dispelled by the US Supreme Court, which ruled on Monday that states have no authority to disqualify candidates.

All but one of Mr Trump’s challengers have long since fallen away, with only the well-funded but underperforming ex-UN ambassador Nikki Haley still swinging.

She did pick up a much-needed win in Washington DC’s primary on Sunday – her first of the season, beating Mr Trump by 62.8 per cent of the vote to his 33.3 per cent and scooping up 19 delegates in the process – but whether that will be enough to finally put some momentum behind her campaign remains to be seen.

The Democratic contest is even more one-sided, with President Joe Biden seemingly nailed-on to be his party’s candidate again as he seeks a second term in the White House, despite concerns about his advanced age and consistently poor polling.

But the presidential race is not the only contest voters will be weighing in on on Super Tuesday and some of the down-ballot races are likely to prove far more nail-biting.

Here’s your guide to the other key races to look out for.

California Senate primary

The race to replace the late senator Dianne Feinstein comes after Gavin Newsom’s appointee to the seat, Laphonza Butler, decided against running for the full term and pits well-known Democratic congressman Adam Schiff, who led the first House impeachment of Mr Trump, against fellow representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee and ex-LA Dodgers star Steve Garvey, who is running on the Republican ticket.

Texas Democratic Senate primary

The favourite among Democrats hoping for the chance to ultimately challenge Republican incumbent Ted Cruz is former NFL star turned congressman Colin Allred.

State senator Roland Gutierrez appears best placed to challenge him but has not been able to match his rival’s fundraising.

North Carolina gubernatorial primaries

Both parties are choosing their nominees in the race to succeed the state’s term-limited Democratic governor Roy Cooper and the result is likely to be a matchup between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lieutenant-Governor Mark Robinson.

Mr Trump marginally carried the battleground state in 2020 but President Biden is hoping to flip it in November so the outcome here will go a long way towards indicating how feasible that goal might be.

Arkansas Supreme Court

Voters in Arkansas have the opportunity to make history with the state’s first Black elected official and the first woman elected chief justice in the state’s supreme court election.

Two individuals, Justice Courtney Hudson and Circuit Judge Carlton Jones, are competing for the associate justice position on the court. Justice Hudson is looking to continue her time on the court by seeking a new position. Meanwhile, Judge Jones could be the state’s first Black elected statewide since official Reconstruction.

The chief justice seat is also open for grabs with Justice Karen Baker, Justice Barbara Womack Webb, Justice Rhonda Wood and former state representative Jay Martin competing for the seat.

Alabama Supreme Court chief justice nominee

Weeks after the Alabama Supreme Court made the widely unpopular IVF ruling, voters will be asked to choose the next Republican nominee for the chief justice seat.

Justice Sarah Stewart and former state senator Bryan Taylor are competing for the nomination. Whoever wins that will go head-to-head with Circuit Judge Greg Griffin, a Democrat, in November.

Crucial House contests

Alabama

The Yellowhammer State’s electoral map was redrawn in October after a panel of federal judges rejected a Republican proposal in favour of their own, maintaining the state’s one existing majority-Black district and effectively creating another, which the Democrats ultimately hope to be able to flip.

The redistricting places Republicans Jerry Carl and Barry Moore up against each other in Alabama’s new 1st Congressional District, with Democrat Tom Holmes providing the opposition challenge.

Mr Moore, who formerly held the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has the support of Marjorie Taylor Greene, in turn, leaves behind a seat that will be fought over by 11 candidates, with a 16 April runoff considered the most likely outcome to find an outright winner.

Arkansas

The race for the state’s 3rd Congressional District will be fought between long-serving Republican representative Steve Womack, seeking an eighth term, and state senator Clint Penzo, who has said he was motivated to challenge Mr Womack because of his opposition to Jim Jordan’s candidacy for the speakership of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy’s ousting last autumn.

California

The Golden State’s “top-two” approach to primaries, which lists all the candidates together on ballot papers regardless of party affiliation, promises to keep things as interesting at House level as the Feinstein Senate race promises to be.

The decision by Mr Schiff and Ms Porter to contest the latter means their old 30th and 47th Congressional Districts are open to a successor, with Republicans like Scott Baugh believing they might have a chance at stealing Porter’s former base.

Other key congressional districts that look competitive in California include the 9th, 13th, 16th, 20th, 22nd, 27th, 32nd, 27th, 40th, 41st, 45th and 49th.

The 16th takes in deep blue Silicon Valley, while the 20th needs a successor to the aforementioned Mr McCarthy, underlining the complexity of California as an electoral proposition.

North Carolina

Like Arkansas, the Tar Heel State has redrawn its congressional map in a move that stands to benefit Republicans hopeful of flipping House seats.

North Carolina’s 14 seats are currently divided evenly but the new map ultimately threatens to leave conservatives with at least 10.

Races in the 6th and 14th Congressional Districts are being fought because Democratic incumbents Kathy Manning and Jeff Jackson are stepping down in opposition to the redistricting.

The 1st District race between Democratic incumbent Don David and challengers Tom Bailey (libertarian), Laurie Buckhout and Sandy Smith (both Republican) promises to be tight, as does the 8th, being fought over by six GOP candidates including pastor Mark Harris after incumbent Dan Bishop left to campaign for state attorney general.

Texas

The Lone Star State has many key races to watch, notably Democrat Lizzie Fletcher being challenged by Pervez Agwan in the 7th Congressional District, Sheila Jackson Lee being challenged by ex-Houston City councilwoman Amanda Edwards in the 18th and Republican Tony Gonzales facing a host of would-be GOP usurpers in the 23rd, his opposition including former ICE agent Victor Avila and social media influencer Brandon Herrera.

Republicans Kay Granger and Michael Burgess are retiring, leaving the 12th and 26th open respectively, while Mr Allred’s challenge for the Senate leaves the 32nd in search of a replacement.

Ariana Baio contributed to this report.