What Joe Biden’s comeback on Super Tuesday means for Trump

‘Voters like to build up frontrunners and then they take delight in knocking them down,’ Democratic strategist warns former vice president

Joe Biden said “things are looking awful, awful good” in his Super Tuesday victory speech after he surged to frontrunner status in a Democratic primary race that has been transformed.

The former vice president declared “this campaign is taking off,” and told those who have been counted out and knocked down in life “this campaign is for you”. He was even able to laugh off yet another gaffe when he mixed up his wife Jill Biden and sister Valerie Biden Owens on stage – the kind of mistake that just a week ago would have been used by critics to suggested he has lost a step or two.

Mr Biden criticised Donald Trump, saying the president “has no compassion” and views “honour and respect” as weaknesses. “He doesn’t believe we’re beacons of the world,” the former VP said of Mr Trump, underscoring his campaign’s major theme that he is best-suited among all Democrats to beat the incumbent in a head-to-head race.

Mr Biden surged to a lead in the all-important Democratic delegate count, but he must still defeat Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who was the frontrunner until Tuesday night when he won only three states.

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg‘s “exit and his endorsement of Biden means that all the moderates are gone and they have all endorsed the former vice president,” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic political strategist. “The Tuesday results put Biden in the driver’s seat but there have been so many twists and turns that it would be a mistake to rule Sanders out. Voters like to build up frontrunners and then they take delight in knocking them down.”

Here are five things that Mr Biden’s big night mean for the 2020 race.

‘Where’s Hunter?’

As Mr Biden and Mr Sanders get set for a two-candidate fight for the Democratic nomination, expect the president to ramp up his attacks on the longtime Delaware senator after focusing on “Crazy Bernie” for weeks.

But Mr Trump’s rhetoric probably won’t be limited to “Sleepy Joe.”

The president also has attacked Hunter Biden, the son of the former vice president. It was the son’s seat on a Ukrainian energy company’s board while his father was leading the Obama administration’s anti-corruption push there that Mr Trump asked the country’s president to look into.

Testimony during the House impeachment inquiry by current and former administration officials stated the president made a $391m (£305m) military aid package contingent on the announcement of an investigation of the Bidens.

Mr Trump has asked “Where’s Hunter?” on Twitter and at political rallies. His campaign even sold “Where’s Hunter?” T-shirts. The answer appears to be in Los Angeles. Painting.

Bernie bro

The president has been trying for a year to paint all Democrats as “radical” and “extreme” and “socialists.” He has described Democratic politicians like Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Mr Biden as standing by while progressives like Mr Sanders have taken over their party.

At a campaign rally on Friday night in South Carolina, Mr Trump conducted a poll of his supporters, asking whether Mr Sanders or Mr Biden would be easiest to beat. Mr Sanders won. It was a continuation of Mr Trump’s almost daily advocacy for the self-described “democratic-socialist,” tweeting frequently that the “establishment” wing of the party will stop at nothing to block him from becoming the nominee.

“You see what’s happening, right? It’s being rigged against [Mr Sanders],” the president said on Monday night at a campaign rally in Charlotte. “It’s sad, it’s being rigged against crazy Bernie.”

But Mr Trump’s Bernie bro act appears to have backfired.

He crushed Mr Sanders first in South Carolina, site of a Friday night “Keep America Great” rally, then on Tuesday in North Carolina, which hosted a Monday night rally.

But, as always, those results did not cause the president to change tactics. He took to Twitter on Wednesday morning to paint Mr Sanders as the victim

“Wow! If Elizabeth Warren wasn’t in the race, Bernie Sanders would have EASILY won Massachusetts, Minnesota and Texas, not to mention various other states,” Mr Trump tweeted. “Our modern day Pocahontas won’t go down in history as a winner, but she may very well go down as the all time great SPOILER!”

Head-to-head

Although the president’s words suggest he would prefer to run against Mr Sanders, polls suggest his odds of winning another term are about the same against each leading Democrat.

Recent national polls conducted by Fox News and Yahoo give the Vermont senator a seven-point and six-point lead, respectively, over the president. The same polls give Mr Biden an eight-point and nine-point advantage nationally over Mr Trump in a head-to-head race.

In key swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Mr Sanders leads the president by a few percentage points – but within the margins of error. The same polls in the same states show the former VP tied with the 45th chief executive.

One Democratic strategist, however, said Mr Biden is attracting a mix of voters that would probably give him a better chance in the general election. “This is the winning coalition from 2018 and Obama years: African-American and suburban voters,” the strategist said.

Mr Trump is watching those polls carefully, and he’s mindful that he has to put his 2016 Electoral College map back together again – a needle he must again thread. That includes Pennsylvania.

The president returns to the Keystone State on Thursday night for a town hall event hosted by Fox News, his preferred cable network and one that gets massive ratings among conservatives as he looks to drive up turnout among that bloc to offset Democratic turnout in urban areas.

Impeachment on a loop

After Senate Republicans acquitted Mr Trump on two House-passed impeachment articles, the president’s approval rating rose to record highs.

Although it has fallen over his uneven handling and downplaying of the coronavirus threat, should Mr Biden become the nominee, expect the president to use the Ukraine matter as a bludgeon against him.

In fact, as he tries to soften up Mr Biden in hopes of running against the “socialist”, Mr Trump is likely to start talking about his impeachment and Ukraine a lot more as the two Democrats battle it out.

But some Democratic strategists are suggesting the issue is a loser for the president.

“Definition of a bad day at the WH: You buy a freakin’ impeachment to try and stop @JoeBiden and now he’s resurgent!”, David Axelrod, a former adviser to Barack Obama, tweeted on Wednesday.