Election 2024 results breakdown: The electoral college, turnout, tightest races and who controls Congress

The Independent’s data correspondent looks at the numbers you need to know from the 2024 election, from how many states were flipped, to control of the Senate

On Wednesday afternoon, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris gave a speech conceding victory to Donald Trump, who has won the 2024 presidential election.

Trump has won at least 295 electoral college votes, more than what was needed to push him over the line of 270 to become the president-elect of the United States. Though two states (Arizona and Nevada) have not yet been called, Trump has already surpassed the number of votes to secure his return trip to the White House.

Votes will continue to be counted and certified in the coming days and weeks, so these numbers may not be final. But at this stage in the race, here are the numbers you need to know from the 2024 presidential election, from turnout to Senate control.

Read here for election results in full.

1. The electoral college

Trump has won at least 295 votes in the electoral college compared to Harris’s 226.

While Arizona and Nevada have not yet officially been called, both states show Trump leading at this stage.

This means that Trump may have a stronger electoral college victory than incumbent president Joe Biden in 2020, and by Trump’s first win in 2016.

All of those totals, however, are weaker than many of the preceding presidents including Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan.

Trump is still on track to win the popular vote, but those numbers are still being determined as more counties report results.

2. Turnout remains high

Under current projections by the University of Florida Election Lab, turnout remains close to the record-breaking high in 2020.

National turnout has been estimated at 64.5 per cent, with around 158 million ballots counted out of the 245 million eligible voters.

Note that ballots are still being counted, particularly mail-in ballots.

In 2020, around 65.9 per cent of the population showed up to vote, the highest turnout since 1900.

This year, Minnesota (home of Democratic vice-president nominee Tim Walz) had the highest turnout of any state at 76.5 per cent; however, this is down by 3.5 per cent from 2020.

By contrast, the Trump stronghold of Oklahoma had the lowest turnout of all at just 53.3 per cent of the population. However, that is an improvement on 2016, when under half of the population voted.

3. Four states flipped so far

Only four states have ”flipped” in this election, all changing hands from Biden to Trump — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It’s no surprise that these are four out of the seven swing states that were poised to decide the next president.

All four states were won by Biden in 2020, who flipped them from Trump in 2016.

Trump maintained hold of the fifth swing state, North Carolina, by around 3.4 per cent.

Arizona and Nevada make up the remaining two that, when called, could push Trump to a total swing-state victory.

4. The tightest races and biggest victories

Although votes are still being counted, at this stage at least 13 states were won with a less than 10 per cent difference between either candidate.

Aside from the swing states, Harris’s win in New Hampshire was the closest of all states, with a 2 per cent margin down from Biden’s 7.3 per cent margin in 2020.

Harris also lost 10 per cent of Biden’s lead in Connecticut, ending up just 9.7 per cent ahead of Trump.

Meanwhile, the widest victory was taken by Harris in the District of Columbia, where she was 85.7 per cent ahead of Trump.

Most of the strongest statewide leads, however, are attributed to Trump.

These include Wyoming (46.2 per cent lead), West Virginia (42.3 per cent) and Idaho (36.7 per cent), all states in which Trump had a bigger lead than 2020.

5. The Senate and House makeup

Final numbers are still being determined for the House and Senate races.

Republicans have already gained a majority in the Senate, with 52 GOP senators so far compared to just 45 Democrats, and three seats still remaining to be called.

Republicans hit the 51 mark for a simple majority, needed to approve appointments and the budget, for example. But many other laws require 60 out of 100 votes to be passed, a number that the Republicans are not projected to reach.

Previously, neither party had a Senate clear majority, but the 47 Democrats caucused with four Independents to have a two-seat majority over the 49 Republicans.

The Democrats entered into this election with a slight disadvantage, since 18 out of 34 seats up for grabs were previously held by Democrats and four by independents, compared to 11 Republicans.

So far, the Republicans have successfully flipped three Senate seats, two from the Democrats and one from Joe Manchin, who was formerly a Democrat but registered as independent earlier this year.

The House of Representatives is still too close to call for either the Republicans or Democrats, with 28 seats still waiting to be decided.

Currently, the Republican Party has 211 out of 435 seats and the Democrats have 203. Previously, the Republicans had a small majority in the House.

6. President, House, Senate: triple threat?

The Republicans have gained control of the Senate, and Trump has been elected president.

While the future of the House remains unclear at this stage, a Republican majority is very possible.

With Trump praising his “unprecedented and powerful mandate,” should the Democrats be concerned about the potential triple threat?

A triple victory across the House, Senate and executive branch has happened six times since the 90s.

In fact, both Trump and Biden enjoyed two years of party control across those branches of government during their presidencies.

However, with the Supreme Court also stacked in favour of the Republicans, there may well be an unprecedented imbalance of power for the government.

7. Voter demographics

The overall demographics of how people voted are still being processed, but exit polls from NBC News suggest some clear trends.

While a gender divide between men and women was expected in this election, the final gap was smaller than some predictions.

The biggest divides came among men and women from different racial groups.

Warnings of a shift among Black men toward Trump turned out to ring true, according to the exit poll, with one in five choosing Trump over Harris.

Meanwhile, just 7 per cent of Black women voted for Trump, the lowest of any group.

Among Latinos, men were 17 per cent more likely to vote for Trump than women.

In fact, Latino men swung for Trump overall, at 55 per cent compared to 45 per cent for Harris.

The election results are still being counted and confirmed in many states, so the above numbers are not final. Check back in with the Independent for more analysis.