Poll shows Americans view Harris as more intelligent — but see Trump as the better leader

The picture gets even more interesting when trends among Independent voters are taken into account

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Monday, July 22, 2024, during an event with NCAA college athletes. This is her first public appearance since President Joe Biden endorsed her to be the next presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (AP)

Kamala Harris is viewed as more intelligent than Donald Trump by American voters, with the right temperament needed to be an effective president, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.

But despite the VP’s positive traits, people are still much more likely to see Trump as a strong leader (60 per cent, to Harris’ 47 per cent).

With one a former president and three-time presidential candidate, and the other an incumbent VP but first-time (likely) candidate, the question of leadership is front-and-center.

While Trump has the benefit of dozens of white men who have laid the path to the Oval Office in the minds of voters, Harris fights a steeper battle to be perceived a “strong leader”. If elected, she would be the first female president of the United States, and only the second person of color.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted among 1,142 registered voters last week between 22-24 July, after Biden stepped down as the Democratic candidate.

Interestingly, both Trump and Harris were tied at a joint low of 43 per cent on whether voters believe they can unify the country.

However, Republicans were slightly more convinced that Trump could bring the country together (85 per cent), while Democrats thought the same of Harris, but a little less so at 81 per cent.

Registered Independents were the least likely to believe that either candidate would bring unity to the United States.

Not just party lines

For the most part, Republicans and Democrats were faithful to their prospective presidential candidates when attributing positive traits.

However, this did not exclude voters from seeing positive aspects in the opposing party’s candidate.

For example, a substantial third (33 per cent) of Republican voters said that they viewed Harris as intelligent. Meanwhile, 23 per cent of Democrats thought the same of Trump.

A small but significant portion of registered Republicans (14 per cent) believe that Kamala Harris cares about “people like them”, while just 9 per cent of Democrats feel the same about Trump.

Despite most Democrats seeing Harris as a strong leader (88 per cent), 1 in 4 also see Trump the same way.

When it comes to Independent voters, the picture is more interesting.

These voters are more likely to see Harris than Trump as intelligent (+6 per cent), and more likely to believe she has the temperament to be an effective president (+7 per cent).

The Independent group is also marginally more inclined (+2 per cent) to say that Harris cares about people like them, and is capable of unifying the country.

Yet on the topic of leadership, Trump prevails among Independents by a large margin (+17 points), with the majority of this group (63 per cent) viewing him as a strong leader.

The polling highlights the fact that people may be looking for different things in a future president. Does empathy matter, or is a strong leader what today’s voters want? Is it more important that a candidate acts “presidentially”, or that they work to unify the country?

While this NYT/Siena poll gives us some insight into how voters perceive the candidates, it is not yet clear how these factors influence their vote. In particular, it’s likely that various demographic groups will have a different idea of what makes the ideal president — and so keeping an eye on future polling that takes that into account is paramount.