Leading pollster warns Americans ‘should make contingency plans’ ahead of possible Trump win

Outcome of 2024 White House race is still a ‘toss-up’, Nate Silver says

Prominent election forecaster Nate Silver says Americans should be making “contingency plans” for the prospect of a Trump victory, as the presidential race remains a toss-up.

“One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter, but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term?” Silver toldThe Guardian.

“Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

Silver, whose election model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012, and 2020 elections, has said the outcome of the 2024 White House race is still a “toss-up.”

Race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is still too close to predict, prominent election forecaster Nate Silver says (Getty / EPA)

According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania.

With less than 50 days until the election, Harris has a 2.9 percent lead over Trump in an average of national polls, according to The Independent’s poll tracker.

This Saturday both campaigns hit key swing states, with vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance both speaking in Pennsylvania, and Donald Trump holding a rally in North Carolina.

Trump’s appearance in the state is complicated by his endorsement of embattled Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. The Republican nominee for governor, prior to entering politics, allegedly left comments on a pornography site and called himself a “black NAZI”, CNN reported.

Trump once praised Robinson as like Dr Martin Luther King Jr “on steroids.”

“This is an issue that has to do with Robinson’s campaign and not President Trump’s campaign,” a Trump official told Axios. Robinson has denied making the offensive comments.