Top polling guru reveals final 2024 election prediction model – and it couldn’t be any closer
‘This is my fifth presidential election and there has never been anything like this,’ Nate Silver said
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.Polling guru Nate Silver has revealed his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election – and has concluded the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer than a coin flip.”
In Silver’s model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations, giving her a razor-thin lead.
“The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent,” Silver wrote on his Substack page on Tuesday morning.
“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating,” he said.
Silver added that Harris did not come out as the victor in 39,988 simulations (49.985 percent) and of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Trump.
The remaining 270 simulations resulted in an Electoral College tie, Silver said, adding that he would usually only run 40,000 simulations.
“This is my fifth presidential election – and my ninth general election overall, counting midterms – and there has never been anything like this,” Silver said.
Silver said his model is a “direct descendant” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast.
On Sunday, the election guru said that any momentum Trump had in October had “petered out in November.”
“We will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump,” he added.
The prediction model comes days after a shock new poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom in Iowa found Harris leading Trump in the state, with 47 percent to 44 percent.
Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020 and the state – which has six electoral college votes – was considered a likely Republican win.
In response to that poll, Trump lashed out during a Sunday rally, calling it “suppression.” “They suppress, and it actually should be illegal,” he insisted.
Polling from Emerson College told a very different story and put Trump ten points ahead of Harris in Iowa.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments