Top elections forecaster says ‘expect anything’ on midterm night as forecasts fluctuate

Both parties have chances of securing majorities as midterms come down to final weeks, argues NYT analyst

A top elections forecaster says the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections is far from certain, as the two parties are separated by a razor-thin gap in polls of key races as well as voters’ general feelings about control of Congress.

The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote on Tuesday that “we’re heading for a highly uncertain election night” should polls continue to trend as they are, with neither party in a position of decisive advantage.

His column comes on the heels of new generic ballot surveys from such pollsters as Emerson College, Morning Consult and Rasmussen Reports. Emerson found Republicans with a five-point advantage between 18-19 Octoctober; right-leaning Rasmussen found Republicans up four points over Democrats; and confoundingly Morning Consult found Democrats up three points in a poll taken 21-23 October.

Noting the margin for error in such national polling, Mr Cohn wrote: “If the national environment is a few points better for Republicans than these numbers, the prospect of a Republican landslide quickly starts looking plausible. If the environment is better for Democrats, they will look surprisingly resilient for a midterm year, even if the outcome would be short of their summer hopes of defying gravity altogether.”

The bottom line: “Expect anything”, according to Mr Cohn.

That uncertainty is leading both sides to ramp up their campaigning in the final days. Republicans and Democrats both are falling into old playbooks, with the GOP surging ad spending in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other states, while Democrats pull big-name campaigners into the field, including Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders.

A number of highly important races are within just a few points, while others remain frustratingly uncompetitive for various involved parties. In Pennsylvania, the US Senate race has come down to just a few points after Lt Gov John Fetterman ran a strong lead in polls throughout most of the summer. In Ohio, the race between JD Vance and Tim Ryan for Senate remains similarly competitive, though Mr Ryan’s allies have complained of a lack of support from national Democrats.

In Texas, meanwhile, Beto O’Rourke appears to be handily losing the race for governor; polls continue to show him down as far as double digits. And Stacey Abrams, in Georgia, has yet to take a polling lead over Brian Kemp, the incumbent governor whom she came within a few points of defeating in the last cycle. And in Michigan, Republican and Trump acolyte Tudor Dixon remains far behind incumbent Gov Gretchen Whitmer, according to all available polling.

President Joe Biden continues to hit the trail to tout the success of his administration in passing legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and bipartisan infrastructure compromise, but his party nationally continues to be weighed down by the issue of inflation as well as persistent efforts by Republicans to drive anger around the issue of immigration.