Trump endorsed Mike Johnson for House speaker. His future is still anything but certain

Some members of an unruly GOP caucus remain unenthused with Johnson — but what’s the alternative?

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks to the media following the passage of a spending legislation to avert a government shutdown on December 20, 2024 (REUTERS)

Mike Johnson is days away from facing the music as the House of Representatives is set to meet and elect a new speaker for the 119th Congress.

The Trump loyalist’s term as speaker began after he emerged as a consensus candidate last fall, thanks to his ability to win over both moderates and institutionalist Republicans while also maintaining friendly(ish) ties with his party’s frenzied right wing. His election occurred after the chamber was shut down for nearly a month following the ouster of Kevin McCarthy, his predecessor, from the speaker’s chair by a rebellion within the GOP caucus.

The congressman from Louisiana has maintained shaky control of his caucus since late October of last year, buoyed in part by a weariness resulting from that chaotic speakerless period. Whether that will continue into the new Congress, however, still remains uncertain.

Chip Roy, a Republican representative from Texas known for clashing with both leadership and the MAGA wing of his party over spending issues, made clear on Tuesday that Johnson still has work to do in order to win another term.

“Right now, I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday,” the congressman told Fox Business.

“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the President's agenda,” Roy added.

Chip Roy, left, stands behind Speaker Mike Johnson, center, at a press conference on the Hill. Roy said Tuesday that he is unsure whether to support Johnson’s re-election to the speakership for the upcoming term. (AP)

His suggestions for Johnson’s possible replacement — Byron Donalds and Jim Jordan — come as no surprise, as both ran unsuccessfully for the position when Johnson clinched the chair. Jordan, an Ohio congressman, in particular is a perennial candidate for the role but has repeatedly failed to win over purple-district Republicans and others aligned with leadership. Jordan, in a Twitter post, indicated his own endorsement of Johnson, though that wouldn’t stop him from mounting a bid if it was clear his rival didn’t have the votes.

Johnson’s biggest advantage heading into the vote Friday may be that his critics have yet to come up with a palatable alternative. The power balance has shifted little in the lower chamber of Congress, meaning Republicans will still hold just a single-digit majority in the chamber for the upcoming term. Democrats remain unified in opposition to the election of a GOP speaker, so Johnson will need to unify his caucus in order to keep his job.

Donald Trump’s endorsement is no small factor either. The support of the president-elect could be enough to move Trump loyalists like Anna Paulina Luna, who told reporters last month that she was undecided, back into Johnson’s camp. It could also backfire, making Johnson increasingly reliant on the president-elect (though that ship may already have sailed).

Another big advantage: the absence of Matt Gaetz. The former Florida congressman resigned his seat last month just days before the expected release of a report by the House Ethics Committee that found evidence he paid for sex with a minor in 2017, claims Gaetz denies. His resignation was timed with a last-minute bid to become Trump’s attorney general. Gaetz was the leader of the group of Republicans who ousted McCarthy last year, and the end of his congressional career moves one chaos agent off the board as Johnson seeks to keep a large and unruly caucus in line.

Matt Gaetz led a successful effort to oust Kevin McCarthy before resigning his own seat a year later to head off release of a report which found that he paid a minor for sex in 2017, which he denies. (REUTERS)

Marjorie Taylor Greene, who tried unsuccessfully to repeat Gaetz’s performance against Johnson earlier this year, is also quietly backing Johnson, according to Punchbowl News.

Republicans tied to leadership, especially longer-serving members, are expected to lean on their caucus to avoid the kind of debacle that unfolded this time in early 2023, when McCarthy required more than a dozen votes in the chamber to secure the speakership.

“I think it would be a huge mistake to challenge [Johnson] and anybody that thinks what we did last term worked well, I think, is delusional,” Tom Cole, chairman of the powerful (and highly sought-after) Appropriations panel, told The Independent after a GOP caucus meeting last month.

“The challenge got us off to a bad start. It bedeviled things. Getting rid of Speaker McCarthy was a dumb idea. The reality is the people that did it had no exit strategy, no alternative, and it plunged the Congress and the country into chaos for weeks. So I hope we learn from that.”

The Senate remains another obstacle for any incoming GOP speaker. Though it swung back to Republican control with the November elections, it did so only by a few votes — far from a filibuster-proof majority. The new leader of the Republican Senate caucus, John Thune, is not expected to present too much of an obstacle to the Trump administration’s legislative agenda but will be a hard sell on any of Trump’s more outlandish demands, such as his most recent urgings for his party to cause a government shutdown unless Democrats consented to adding language raising the debt ceiling to a short-term funding measure.

Other Republicans are still casting doubt on Johnson’s future in public statements, even with Trump’s endorsement at his back.

“Trump’s endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan,” Thomas Massie of Kentucky told reporters.

He explained his frustrations to The Independent last month: “[Johnson]’s basically a neocon, and Trump, at least in his campaign, is the opposite of that. ... Speaker Johnson is going to have to do a 180 on a lot of the policy that he’s shoved down our throats in the House if he’s going to support Trump’s mandate.”