A stunningly accurate prediction on House and Senate control from August has gone viral after results
Two months before election day, late night Twitter prediction appears spot-on
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.A prediction about the US midterms made on Twitter at the end of August has gone viral for apparently accurately guessing the outcome of the election.
User “umichvoter”, who appears to be 22-years-old with an interest in politics and elections currently studying for a medical degree, made the prediction on 31 August.
He wrote: “Based on special elections and generic ballot and president approval trends, I’d say we are probably at about a 50-49 Dem senate with GA headed to runoff and 219-216 GOP house.”
“Things could change tho,” he added.
Midterm elections - live: Slim majority projected to give Republicans House control as Democrats hold Senate
Kevin McCarthy faces ‘an almost impossible task’ if Republicans win the House
Control of House of Representatives is still up for grabs but Democrats face increasingly tough path to majority
White House adviser says painting MAGA Republicans as ‘extremists’ helped Democrats to midterms success
As the dust settles and final votes are counted in House races, it appears the prediction may have been spot on.
On Friday, incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly won his race in Arizona, taking the party’s total Senate wins to 49.
By Saturday evening, fellow incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto was reelected in Nevada, guaranteeing Democrats control of the upper chamber of Congress even before the Georgia runoff takes place on 6 December.
Democrat John Fetterman has already won the open Pennsylvania Senate seat earlier in the week and Senator Maggie Hassan was also reelected in New Hampshire.
In the lower chamber, while there are still House races being tallied up, on Monday morning NBC News projected that Republicans would take the majority, but only by a super slim margin of three seats — mirroring the prediction.
Umichvoter was praised for his “God-tier prediction” given more than two months prior to election day.
Another Twitter user called it the “finest aged tweet ever to be posted on this website,” while another wrote: “I think this means you get control of Five Thirty Eight now,” referring to the polling data website.
One person asked for his thoughts on the lottery numbers, while another asked: “Why are the good Twitter election analysts nailing it when the big names are a mile off?”
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments