Democrats are cautiously optimistic as Virginia voters head to the polls to choose next governor

Local issues have dominated race that could have national implications

A cold and rainy autumn day marked the last few hours of Virginia’s gubernatorial contest on Tuesday as in-person voting took place across the state and Democrats hoped to preserve their control of the governor’s mansion.

Supporters of the state’s former governor and current Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Terry McAuliffe, appeared cautiously optimistic. The state has trended reliably blue in recent years, and a surge in early voting is expected to boost Mr McAuliffe’s chances.

Still, the final results are expected to be tight, as polling has shown Republican Glenn Youngkin gaining support in the race’s final days; a FiveThirtyEight polling average had him two points in the lead on Election Day.

Once expected to be focused on a referendum of President Joe Biden’s governance, the contest has instead focused on localised issues including education and the role of parents in school curriculums. Mr McAuliffe has attempted to tie his opponent to former President Donald Trump and the deadly riot at the US Capitol at every turn, while Mr Youngkin has largely shunned the former president’s attempts to elevate his relevance in the race.

Mr McAuliffe rallied a group of supporters in Falls Church as Election Day began, and an energetic crowd chanted the candidate’s name as well as SEIU, referring to the McAuliffe-endorsing Service Employees International Union.

.⁦@marcussimon⁩ and ⁦@TerryMcAuliffe⁩ have the crowd FIRED UP in Falls Church! pic.twitter.com/cA6j3dt0ud

— Carter Elliott, IV (@CarterElliottIV) November 2, 2021

Democratic and anti-Trump strategists echoed the candidate’s optimism in comments toThe Independent on Election Day, though none were certain of a McAuliffe victory.

“I still think he is going to squeeze it out, honestly. It’s gonna be one of two scenarios: Terry by a nose or Youngkin by a blowout,” said the Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson of Mr McAuliffe, whom his organisation is supporting. “[I]f as the day goes by, you see the right wing start talking about a stolen election more, you’ll know that they’ve got numbers that don’t look great.”

James Carville, a longtime Democratic strategist who last month said he was “scared to death” about how close the Virginia race was, added that his sources indicated that Democrats’ get out the vote efforts were showing success.

“I’m told by multiple people that the Democrats are doing significantly better with non-habitual voters…there is a significant gap between the chattering class and the [quantitative] class”, he said.

“They’re not accounting for the fact there’s just more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia”, he added.

Mr Biden predicted an election victory during his own press conference on Tuesday from Scotland, where he spoke to reporters after attending events at the COP26 climate forum.

“I think we’re gonna win in Virginia,” he said.

Early votes had already passed 1.1 million as of Tuesday morning, a sharp increase from previous years thanks to changes led by the state’s Democratic-controlled legislature. Mr Youngkin on Monday urged his own supporters to show up on Election Day and charatcterised the race as “neck-and-neck”.

"The entire nation is watching this,” Mr Youngkin said. “There's only two statewide elections this year, New Jersey and Virginia, and all eyes are on Virginia. The nation needs us to vote for them too.”

"Tomorrow, we gotta show up and take it. We aren't going to be given it, but we gotta take it," he said.

The race is expected to have major implications for Democrats and Republicans nationally, even as much of the discussion has revolved around local issues. Mr Biden and Democrats in Congress are hoping for a sign that voters still approve of their agenda as they push through a two-pronged infrastructure and social safety net package, and will see a victory by Mr McAuliffe, particularly a decisive one, as a sign that Democrats in battleground states have some level of safety going in to the 2022 midterms.

Republicans, meanwhile, would see a win by Mr Youngkin as vindication of their efforts to pick fights over issues including critical race theory and education, which has proven already to be an issue that can drive angry conservatives to protest local school board meetings across the country. A Youngkin victory would prove that those fights can translate to votes in statewide races where the party faces unfavorable terrain.

A Youngkin victory would also be a major defeat of Democratic messaging effort seeking to tie Republicans, including those who bill themselves as moderates, to the violence on 6 January and the reputation of the former president.

Mr McAuliffe’s closing message on Monday sought to tie Mr Youngkin to the former president. "I am running against, I like to say, Donald Trump in khakis or a sweater vest,” Mr McAuliffe said.

He added: “Donald Trump wants to win here tomorrow night so he can the next day announce for president of the United States of America, but we’re going to put an end to Donald Trump’s future plans, right here in Virginia.”