Independents are split evenly between Trump and Harris - and that might be bad news for the VP on election day
While vice president has regained narrow lead among likely voters, the race is close enough for it to be unclear who’s likely to win Electoral College
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Vice President Kamala Harris is lagging behind the support President Joe Biden held among independents - and it could cost her on election day, a new poll has revealed.
In 2020, Biden won the independent voting block by 13 points over Donald Trump, but Harris only has a one-point lead with the group in a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll. In nine of the last 12 presidential elections, the winner among independents has come out victorious.
Harris has regained a narrow lead in the poll among all likely voters but with the race remaining close enough for it to be unclear who’s likely to win the Electoral College.
Among registered voters, Harris leads 49 to 47 percent. With likely voters, Harris leads 51 to 47 percent.
Women are more likely to vote for the Democrat – Harris leads by 13 percent among women voters. While large parts of the poll are similar to the 2020 exit poll, Harris does better than Biden among college-educated white women and performs well among college graduates as a whole.
Harris also does better among Hispanic voters compared to earlier this month, the ABC poll shows, and she has expanded her lead among suburban women. She’s still doing well among some of the most important voter groups for Democrats, including Black voters.
Meanwhile, Trump performs strongly with rural voters and with white men who didn’t attend college. He’s also competitive against Harris among younger men.
Asked who has the mental sharpness to be a good president, Harris beats Trump 49 to 38 percent in the poll. Trump previously led Biden in the category by 31 points.
Harris leads by 29 points on who has the physical health to serve as president, she’s seen as more honest and trustworthy by a margin of 15 points, she has a 10-point lead in understanding the problems of voters, and leads by eight points when survey respondents were asked who shares their personal values.
On being trusted in a crisis, the vice president was also ahead, 43 to 41 percent.
Harris has improved her standing among Hispanic voters compared to earlier this month, she now leads by 30 points – 64 to 34 percent – compared with 55 to 43 percent in the beginning of October.
Trump leads among white men without college degrees and among rural voters by 41 points, which is similar to his 2020 showing. The ABC poll reveals a swing among men under the age of 40, Harris led the group by six points earlier this month, and now Trump leads the voting block by five points.
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