Harris’s betting odds surge past Trump in wake of debate

Vice president previously saw a lead in the betting markets during rollout of running mate Tim Walz

Kamala Harris is surging past Donald Trump in the betting odds following Tuesday’s debate debacle for the former president.

After having started this week behind Trump, Harris is now even with him or ahead, according to a number of U.K. and offshore betting markets, USA Today noted.

At the U.K. bookmaker Betfair Exchange, more than $1.1 million was wagered during Tuesday night’s showdown, with Harris taking the lead about halfway through the debate, which went on for over 90 minutes.

It’s illegal to bet on elections within the U.S., but on the offshore betting houses, the odds previously went in Harris’s favor during the rollout of her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

President Joe Biden had a disastrous debate on June 27, which eventually led to his departure from the race and endorsement of Harris on July 21. On Betfair, Biden went from +200 before the debate to +420 afterward. After the first debate in the 2020 election cycle, Biden’s lead over Trump went from -128 to +132 on the day of the initial showdown to -141 to +148 the following day.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris gives a thumbs up as she boards Air Force Two at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on September 12, 2024. The vice president is seeing a lead in the betting markets, which has often predicted the correct winner (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

On Friday, PredictIt listed Harris as being in the lead of possible winners of the November election.

On Thursday, Bet 365 had Harris at -125 and Trump even, while Bovada had Harris at -115 and Trump at -105. BetOnline listed Harris at -120 and Trump even, while Oddschecker had Harris even and Trump at +108.

After the 2020 election, The Conversation noted that records of betting on U.S. presidential elections go back to 1868 and only twice has the favorite lost: in 1948 when President Harry Truman won re-election against Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

With 75 days to go, Harris had the narrowest lead of any recent Democratic nominee: -102 according to Betfair Exchange in the U.K. Clinton was sitting at -323 at about the same time in 2016 but still lost even as she won the popular vote by almost 3 million ballots.