Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Harris’s betting odds surge past Trump in wake of debate

Vice president previously saw a lead in the betting markets during rollout of running mate Tim Walz

Gustaf Kilander
Washington DC
Friday 13 September 2024 16:30 BST
Comments
Related video: Kamala Harris calls for another debate against Donald Trump

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

Kamala Harris is surging past Donald Trump in the betting odds following Tuesday’s debate debacle for the former president.

After having started this week behind Trump, Harris is now even with him or ahead, according to a number of U.K. and offshore betting markets, USA Today noted.

At the U.K. bookmaker Betfair Exchange, more than $1.1 million was wagered during Tuesday night’s showdown, with Harris taking the lead about halfway through the debate, which went on for over 90 minutes.

It’s illegal to bet on elections within the U.S., but on the offshore betting houses, the odds previously went in Harris’s favor during the rollout of her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

President Joe Biden had a disastrous debate on June 27, which eventually led to his departure from the race and endorsement of Harris on July 21. On Betfair, Biden went from +200 before the debate to +420 afterward. After the first debate in the 2020 election cycle, Biden’s lead over Trump went from -128 to +132 on the day of the initial showdown to -141 to +148 the following day.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris gives a thumbs up as she boards Air Force Two at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on September 12, 2024. The vice president is seeing a lead in the betting markets, which has often predicted the correct winner
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris gives a thumbs up as she boards Air Force Two at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on September 12, 2024. The vice president is seeing a lead in the betting markets, which has often predicted the correct winner (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

On Friday, PredictIt listed Harris as being in the lead of possible winners of the November election.

On Thursday, Bet 365 had Harris at -125 and Trump even, while Bovada had Harris at -115 and Trump at -105. BetOnline listed Harris at -120 and Trump even, while Oddschecker had Harris even and Trump at +108.

After the 2020 election, The Conversation noted that records of betting on U.S. presidential elections go back to 1868 and only twice has the favorite lost: in 1948 when President Harry Truman won re-election against Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

With 75 days to go, Harris had the narrowest lead of any recent Democratic nominee: -102 according to Betfair Exchange in the U.K. Clinton was sitting at -323 at about the same time in 2016 but still lost even as she won the popular vote by almost 3 million ballots.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in