Joe Manchin: Undecided Democrat defies party to put Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination to final vote

Party members hope the West Virginia Senator's vote to invoke cloture is not indicative of his final vote

In a move likely driven by the 2018 midterm elections, Senator Joe Manchin broke ranks with the Democratic Party and has said he will vote in favour of Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination when it comes up for a final vote this weekend.

The moderate Democrat from the reliably “red” Republican state of West Virginia has become a crucial vote in putting Donald Trump’s second nominee on the highest court in the country as party divisions have grown clear. With Mr Manchin's planned support — alongside expected "yes" votes from two key Republicans, Jeff Flake and Susan Collins, who had previously said they were undecided — Mr Kavanaugh appears to have the votes necessary to be confirmed as the next Supreme Court justice of the United States.

Mr Manchin has drawn criticism from both sides of the political aisle since Christine Blasey Ford’s powerful testimony about her allegation Mr Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her while the pair were in high school in 1982.

Mr Kavanaugh’s emotional, often angry, and heated exchanges with Democratic Senators during his testimony about the allegations only added to partisan tensions, which have grown more clear as the Trump presidency continues.

Mr Manchin currently holds a lead in his 2018 re-election bid, but the results vary by pollster and all have shown a drop in his numbers in the days leading up to the Kavanaugh vote.

RealClearPolitics still has him at an average lead of 9.4 points, while FiveThirtyEight cited the Tarrance Group poll which showed he had a four-point lead over Republican candidate state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Just a few days ago, several polls showed Mr Manchin with a 12-point lead.

Mr Manchin’s office has not responded to a request for comment, but his phone lines and inboxes have been flooded with calls for the left-leaning Senator from coal country to follow party lines and vote “no” on Mr Kavanaugh.

Mr Manchin may be undecided due to his shrinking lead in a state won handily by Mr Trump in 2016, but experts have said he is also concerned about his ability to wield power in the Senate if he does get re-elected.

Mr Trump and his surrogates have played to the concerns of the dwindling coal industry, which continues to thrive in the small, largely rural state.

Mr Manchin has never been able to shake the power of coal lobbyists while in Washington, often leading him to break with the Democratic party on key legislation involving climate change and environmental regulations surrounding carbon emissions.

However, Mr Trump also went to the state to campaign for his opponent Mr Morrissey and many were hoping it would sway Mr Manchin to vote more closely along party lines on votes like Mr Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

The senator has indicated the FBI investigation - a result of Mr Flake breaking with his Republican party and delaying the nomination vote - would factor heavily into his decision on Mr Kavanaugh.

Unlike other undecided senators like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, Mr Flake, and Ms Collins, Mr Manchin is up for re-election this year.

Ms Collins has been feeling pressure from thousands of protesters and sexual assault survivors flooding her inboxes, offices in the Senate and in her home state of Maine, and the halls of the Capitol building.

A Maine-based political activist group have set up crowdfunding campaigns in order to fund her opponent in the 2020 election, whoever that may be, if Ms Collins votes to put Mr Kavanaugh on the bench - a threat they are hoping will help sway her vote.

While Mr Manchin has not gotten similar threats, his seat is always shaky given the large Republican base in the state.

Experts have often said, West Virginians vote for Mr Manchin despite him being a Democrat rather than because of it.

The other male vote in the Senate - which could serve to negate any “no” votes by Ms Murkowski or Ms Collins - is Mr Flake, who announced his retirement from the Senate in a fiery speech last year during which he railed against Mr Trump.

He cited his lack of re-election concerns as what allowed him to compromise with personal friend and Democratic Senator Chris Coons and call for the delayed vote and FBI investigation of Dr Ford’s allegations.

What may have prompted him was a heated confrontation from protesters the morning on 28 September.

Mr Flake had looked shell-shocked and had remained silent until the end of the hearing that day after two female protesters - Maria Gallagher and Ana Maria Archila - cornered him in an elevator on his way to the hearing.

Screaming at him tearfully, Ms Gallagher asked him to “look me in eyes” as she said she was a sexual assault survivor and that Mr Flake was “telling me I don’t matter”.

Ms Archilia was holding the elevator door open as she said the Senator was putting someone on the Supreme Court for decades who was “accused of violating a young girl … you have children”.

Mr Manchin also experienced a similar confrontation.

A woman confronted him as he boarded an elevator as well, saying: “As a [sexual assault] survivor, I don’t understand how you can’t look me in the eye”.

“I can,” Mr Manchin replied, adding: “I’m looking right at you.” The protester asked: “How are you not listening to us as survivors?”

“No, I am listening to you,” Manchin said.

“Are you? You’re going to get in this elevator? Look, how are you going to vote? Tell me," she said.

Mr Manchin simply said: "I can't tell you right now".

Party members have called for him to follow Senator Heidi Heitkamp, from the “red” state of North Dakota, who said she was voting “no” just after Mr Kavanaugh’s testimony.

Whether Mr Manchin decides to vote with the party and in support of sexual assault survivors remains to be seen as is what he feels would be more representative of his West Virginia constituency.

The final Senate vote is scheduled to take place on Saturday, but The Independent has heard it could be delayed until the next day.