Will Gaza sink Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy?

As Israel looks poised to escalate war to Lebanon, Biden’s attempts at playing peacemaker seem weak and ineffective. Will that be how he is remembered?

With Israel now focussing military efforts on Lebanon, the war in Gaza looks set to be remembered as the final nail in the coffin for Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy.

The US president’s decision to step down from his bid for re-election in July has solidified a new reality for the White House and the broader Biden administration: the Democratic president will not be remembered for his stewardship of the Middle East in a positive light. With only four years in the presidency, Joe Biden will leave office this year having overseen a bloody withdrawal from Afghanistan that included the fall of Kabul’s democratic government and a return to Taliban rule. More than a dozen Americans died in the pullout and a reprisal US strike killed civilians.

It was an ugly moment early on in Biden’s presidency. Progressives vocally defended him, glad that America had finally ended its longest-running war, even without a perfect exit. Conservatives, including anti-Trumpers who joined the Democratic coalition, were furious at Biden for continuing the withdrawal his predecessor had begun. And everyone, regardless of political affiliation, was horrified by the images of terrified Afghan citizens plunging to their deaths while attempting to cling to departing US planes.

He’ll also leave the presidency without a definitive end in sight for the war in Ukraine. Still essentially a steep uphill battle for Ukraine, despite its pushes into Russian territory, Moscow’s assault hasn’t halted after two and a half years of intense fighting.

But Gaza is another issue entirely. Nearly a year into the conflict, the situation in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories is a new type of conundrum for the Biden administration: one that has painted the president and his leadership at the State Department as utterly helpless and passive in the face of an operation against Hamas that is quickly spiraling into a greater regional war.

Last week, the Biden administration’s outlook looked more bleak than it had at any point before. A report in The Wall Street Journal quoted an unnamed senior Biden administration official who doubted that a ceasefire deal was possible this year, if at all, and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby seemingly confirmed that on Sunday when he said in an interview that no progress had been made in peace talks over the past two weeks.

Joe Biden has spent months trying to keep Israel’s war from spreading around the wider Middle East. On Monday, that goal looked to be on the verge of being pushed out of reach by Israeli strikes in Lebanon. (Getty Images)

As Monday dawned, it looked more likely than ever that the Gaza conflict was on the verge of spreading to Lebanon. A fresh round of Israeli strikes, occurring after pager and other communication devices were detonated across the country in what appeared to be another Israeli attack, killed scores over Sunday into Monday, including 24 children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Israel has claimed it is targeting Hezbollah militants responsible for firing rocket attacks into northern Israel.

The move was particularly disheartening given that the State Department and White House have said repeatedly over the past several months that the US opposes the conflict escalating further outside of Gaza. It appears the US’s efforts to prevent that outcome have failed, as have the administration’s efforts to broker the return of the remaining Hamas-held hostages or see a ceasefire reached with the militant group. Meanwhile, the death toll climbs ever higher: more than 40,000 Palestinians, the majority thought to have been civilians, are reported dead.

On Gaza, Biden runs the risk of being depicted as ineffective and parley to the worst of statements made by Israel’s leaders, even as his aides denounce them. That’s a problem: not one that a Republican would face, but among the base of the Democratic Party the Trump-loving Benjamin Netanyahu is persona non grata among all but the party’s most conservative pro-Israel hangers-on, and statements denying the humanity or rights of Palestinians will earn condemnations, not praise.

For his vice president, the issue of Israel and its assault on Gaza presents a box. Kamala Harris, by virtue of her position, is largely unable to articulate a significantly different strategy for the Middle East or US-Israel relations without being seen as undermining her boss or disrespecting him (if she even supports a change in strategy at all). At the same time, her candidacy could increasingly find itself weighed down by declining enthusiasm among her base, especially younger Democrats, should the conflict escalate further or the US becomes directly involved.

It could especially be a problem in Michigan, home to a large number of Arab-American voters and one of the key battleground states on Harris’s path to victory. Most polls show Harris with a thin lead in the state, whereas Biden had been trailing Trump in the state the 46th president had won back from Republicans in 2020.

The writing may already be on the wall for Joe Biden’s management of US foreign affairs, and the story of his presidency. No one thought it would end like this, least of all Biden himself. But what remains to be seen is how much it will affect Harris — and how much a “new generation of leadership” will really shake up America’s global presence.