Kamala Harris wins over Democrat voters but still trails behind Trump in first polls

Harris is reinspiring Democrat voters, new polls show, and making gains with some core Republican groups

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at West Allis Central High School during her first campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on 23 July (AFP/Getty)

The first few polls are out since the president, Joe Biden, announced he would be abandoning his second bid for the White House on Sunday, with Kamala Harris, the vice president, set to take over as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Most polls show Harris neck and neck with former president Donald Trump, with Harris leading by two points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll but trailing Trump by a few points in several others.

The polls were carried out between 21 July, when Biden dropped out, and 23 July.

Our average of four fresh polls shows the Republican candidate just 1 point ahead of Harris; a slight improvement on Biden, who was averaging 3 points behind Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight, before he stepped down.

But the real win for Harris has been her ability to reinspire faith among the Democratic voter base, even if the headline figures haven’t yet seen the turnaround some Democrats may have hoped for.

Half of those (50 percent) planning to vote for the Democratic candidate are now voting affirmatively for Kamala Harris, with the other half voting just to keep Donald Trump out, according to the latest poll by CNN.

This is a huge improvement from late June, when the same CNN poll showed that just a third (37 percent) of Biden voters were voting for the candidate himself.

Most (67 percent) were voting against Trump at the time, demonstrating a widespread lack of conviction in Biden and the Democrats, even among their own voters.

Meanwhile, among Trump voters, people are less likely to vote out of dislike for Harris, despite attacks from more right-wing GOP members.

In the last CNN poll, one in three Trump supporters planned to vote against Biden. This number has dropped to one in four against Harris, while conviction in Trump has also risen from 66 percent to 74 percent.

The proportion of people voting for a third candidate, undecided, or not planning to vote, has also dropped from 9 percent to 5 percent since CNN’s poll at the end of June.

In particular, Harris appears to have inspired confidence among lower-income Democrat voters and non-college graduates, both key groups for the Republicans and Trump.

Those earning under $50,000 are now slightly more likely to vote for Harris (50 percent) than Trump (45 percent), according to the CNN poll, which has flipped since earlier this month.

Non-college graduates are also slightly more likely to vote for Harris (40 percent) than they were for Biden (35 percent).

Both groups are more likely than average to say they are voting affirmatively for Harris and not against Trump.

This week’s Economist/YouGov poll also confirms that a Harris candidacy holds strong with Black voters and younger age groups.

However, the poll suggests that party lines may not be as gendered as previous polls show, with Harris having a margin of just 2 points among female voters and Trump an 8-point lead among men.