Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

Race and age of Florida respondents seemed to correlate with which candidate they supported

Donald Trump’s lead in his home state of Florida has dwindled, putting it in play for Kamala Harris, a poll suggests.

The former president leads the vice president by just two percentage points in the Sunshine State, where he has his Mar-a-Lago residence, according to a Thursday survey by Napolitan News Service conducted by RMG Research, which has historically favored Republicans.

There appeared to be a stark age divide in the poll’s findings.

Harris dominated young Floridians, with 55 per cent of those polled supporting the Democratic nominee, compared to just 43 per cent supporting Trump. The former president leads significantly with the older crowd; more than half of those 65 and older — 53 per cent — expressed backing Trump compared to 44 per cent backing Harris.

Men and women were also split over the candidates, the survey shows. Harris garnered the support of 49 per cent of women respondents compared to 47 per cent who supported Trump, but the former president raked in 53 per cent of male participants while Harris earned 45 per cent.

The race of the participants revealed the biggest margins.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event, Aug. 18, 2024, in Rochester, left, and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event, Aug. 19, 2024, in York. A recent poll suggests that Florida could be in play for Harris (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

The majority of the poll’s Black respondents — 87 per cent — favored Harris compared to just 13 per cent who favored Trump. The vice president also earned the support of 60 per cent of Hispanic participants; Trump earned 37 per cent. The former president garnered 57 per cent of white respondents’ support compared to 39 per cent for Harris.

The survey’s narrow margin shows how much the political scene has changed since Harris entered the race in late July.

The GOP nominee was leading the state by nearly nine percentage points when Biden dropped out, FiveThirtyEight polling averages show. Harris has somewhat tightened the gap in a state that Trump won in 2020 by 3.3 percentage points.

Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison told reporters in September he believes Harris “has a shot” in Florida. “I keep saying folks, they’re going to be surprised on election night about what happens in the state, that you can’t give up on Florida.”

The survey was conducted from September 25 to 27, before Hurricane Helene barrelled through, rampaging the state and its neighbors. It’s unclear how the storm could have impacted voters’ views.

Harris plans to visit North Carolina, which was also devastated by the hurricane, to survey the devastation. Trump had visited earlier in the week. There, he asserted the federal response included a “lousy treatment to North Carolina in particular.” This claim comes days after the former president posted a Truth Social post falsely accusing the Biden-Harris administration as well as the state’s Democratic Governor Roy Cooper of “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.”