I asked Trumpworld figures what they think about his chances in public. Then I asked some in private
Andrew Feinberg reports from West Palm Beach, where the Trump-Vance election night watch party is about to begin nearby
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Your support makes all the difference.Allies and friends of former president Donald Trump are publicly projecting confidence, despite signs that his campaign hasn’t brought out enough voters to give him the edge over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump aides began trickling in to the West Palm Beach, Florida hotel next to the convention center where the campaign’s watch party is to take place, starting around early afternoon.
One of Trump’s closest and longest-serving confidantes, social media guru and senior adviser Dan Scavino, told The Independent that things were “looking good” when asked for his read on what verdict voters would render once the votes are all counted.
Another longtime aide to the ex-president, anti-immigration hardliner and ex-White House speechwriter Stephen Miller, flashed a thumbs-up when asked the same question as he arrived accompanied by his wife, Katie.
The public bravado exhibited by top Trump advisers is consistent with the attitude the former president has maintained throughout his third campaign for the presidency, which he has insisted that he will win unless the election is “stolen” from him by Democratic subterfuge.
Another high-profile Trump surrogate, disgraced former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich, told The Independent he thinks Trump will come out on top in every one of the all-important seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.)
“I think he’s going to win all seven,” said Blagojevich, who like Trump is a convicted felon. The ex-governor served six years in prison on 18 federal charges relating to his attempt to sell the Senate vacancy created by the election of Barack Obama to the presidency in 2008.
Blagojevich said he believes Trump will win because of the “great” campaign he has run, and because of his resilience in the face of multiple assassination attempts and criminal indictments. He added that Harris has been a “dreadful” candidate.
Yet the felonious former Illinois chief executive hedged on his prediction by noting that he’d also picked the Chicago Cubs to win their National League division last season.
If recent public polling is to be believed, Blagojevich’s election handicapping may be as bad as his baseball predicting abilities. Numerous surveys released in the closing days of the campaign showed Harris leading in the key states she needs to win the presidency, including one eye-popping poll of Iowa showing that Harris was holding a three-point lead in a state Democrats haven’t carried in nearly two decades. That lead seemed to be based particularly on strong showings among female voters.
A poll conducted by Univision released earlier in the week shows Trump having lost ground with the Latino voters he’d hoped would give him the margin to win in key states such as Pennsylvania. Latino turnout in Philadelphia could be surpassing 2020 levels, with reporter Adrian Carrasquillo posting on X/Twitter that a flash poll by the Unidos Action Fund shows Latino voters pulling levers for Harris by a nine-to-one margin.
Privately, some Trumpworld veterans have admitted that there’s a good chance the ex-president fails to take the White House a second time.
One GOP operative contacted by The Independent said Harris appears to be underperforming in three Sun Belt states that usually vote for Republican presidential candidates: Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee. They also said Florida, where Democrats had hoped to flip the Senate seat currently held by Senator Rick Scott, looks to be a Trump rout by a wide margin. But the Midwestern “blue wall” states where a Harris win could give her exactly 270 electoral votes when combined with the “blue dot” of Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district look to be another story.
“It’s 2020 2.0-ish — just extend [the] trend lines,” they said.
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