The four most important down-ballot races — and how they could affect the presidential election

Races in Montana, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida are all being watched closely by the Trump and Harris campaigns

L-R: Ruben Gallego (Getty), Jon Tester (Getty), Rick Scott (Getty), and Mark Robinson (AP) (Getty/AP)

The conventions are in the books. Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are sniping at each other about their presumptive debate in September. Trump has reportedly tapped anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr to work on his transition team, while Harris recently announced that 200 former staffers for Mitt Romney, George W Bush and John McCain have endorsed her campaign (that’s part of her larger effort to court “McCain Republicans.”)

Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff has taken part in a number of campaign receptions, while Governor Tim Walz will speak to the International Association of Fire Fighters on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, will trek through Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

But, of course, the presidency is only one race being decided in November. And some of the races down-ballot are just as bloody. They also might have a massive impact on the top of the ticket.

Here is a roundup of the most important non-presidential races that could make a huge difference.

Arizona Senate

One persistent problem for many Republicans, even before Joe Biden stepped aside, was that even as Trump beat Biden in numerous swing states, Senate candidates continued to underperform him. Nowhere is this problem more persistent than in Arizona.

Biden narrowly won Arizona in 2020 and the state has not elected a Republican to the Senate since John McCain won re-election in 2016. Now, Ruben Gallego, a Marine Corps veteran and Democrat who was a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is running against Kari Lake, the news-anchor-turned election denier who lost her race for governor in 2022.

Democrats hope to hold the seat after Kyrsten Sinema, the mercurial Democrat-turned-Independent, announced she would not seek re-election.

But while Lake narrowly lost her race in 2022 (which she refuses to admit), polling shows Gallego firmly ahead of her. Indeed, Lake might even be a drag on Trump. During a recent rally in Arizona where she appeared alongside Trump, someone shot a photo of a teleprompter saying “wrap asap” and “please get off stage” as Lake delivered remarks.

On Monday, Gallego received another huge boon when the Arizona Police Association — the state’s police union that endorsed Trump, no less — endorsed Gallego. The move is a huge blow to Lake. It means that we should expect to see plenty of Trump-Gallego voters.

Montana Senate

Montana’s Senate race is in many ways the opposite of Arizona’s. After Democratic-turned-Independent Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia, it’s almost guaranteed his place will be taken by a Republican in a state where every county voted for Trump. That leaves Republicans with a majority in the Senate if they flip Montana. Democrats hope that Senator Jon Tester can pull off another miracle victory.

That will be tough. Trump won Montana by more than 16 points in 2020. Similarly, Tester’s fellow Montanan, Senator Steve Daines, is chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and has a vested interest in getting retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy elected.

So far, polling shows the race all over the place. One survey by the Montana GOP shows Sheehy up by seven while another showed Tester up by five. Trump campaigned for Sheehy and mocked Tester for having “the biggest stomach I have ever seen.”

Meanwhile, Tester skipped the DNC and instead hosted a concert with Pearl Jam in Montana (he’s long-time friends with bassist Jeff Ament.)

North Carolina Governor

Polling shows Harris running just about even with Trump in North Carolina. Even before she moved to the top of the ticket, she visited North Carolina regularly and even considered the state’s governor, her good friend Roy Cooper, as a running mate before he bowed out.

Cooper is term-limited, and the race to replace him might just tip the state in Harris’s favor.

Attorney General Josh Stein is a state legislator who is running against Lieutenant Mark Robinson, whom Trump has endorsed and repeatedly praised. But Robinson has come under fire for calling LGBTQ people “filth”. He also ardently opposes abortion and has regularly referred to women who terminate their pregnancies as murderers — despite the fact that he recently admitted he and his wife aborted a pregnancy in a campaign ad.

Robinson’s history of inflammatory remarks have put him at a significant disadvantage. A High Point University/SurveyUSA poll showed Stein with a 14-point lead. The move just might be enough to tip the state toward Harris.

Florida Senate Race:

The former swing state of Florida has become the nerve center of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, Democrats believe they have a legitimate shot to topple Republican Senator Rick Scott.

Democrats have hammered Scott recently for running an ad saying he supports IVF, during which he talks about his own daughter going through the process, and then voting against legislation to protect IVF.

A poll earlier this month from Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA showed that Scott has a four-point lead against former Democratic congresswoman Mucarsel-Powell. But the state will soon have a ballot initiative for a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights after a six-week ban went into effect, and another ballot initiative to legalize marijuana. Democrats hope that both will give them a much-needed boost in Trump’s new home state.