Trump further cements his dominance on GOP three years after Jan 6 riot

Republicans now less likely to think that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected compared to December 2021

Republicans are now more likely to be supportive of those who attacked the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 and more likely not to blame former President Donald Trump for the events of that day than they were two years ago, a new poll has revealed.

The poll, conducted by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, shows that the Republicans are increasingly loyal to Mr Trump as he campaigns for the presidential nomination once again even as his legal woes are mounting. Mr Trump is scrambling to win enough delegates to secure the nomination before any convictions may stir up trouble, including for attempting to remain in power after losing the 2020 election, which led to the events of January 6.

The survey shows that Republicans are now less likely to think that the rioters were “mostly violent” and similarly less likely to think that Mr Trump was in any way responsible for the insurrection. They are also less likely to think that President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, despite no evidence to the contrary, compared to a similar poll conducted by The Post and the University of Maryland in December 2021.

Follow-up interviews have revealed the stunning effect of right-wing propaganda – some Republicans said their opinions have changed because they now think that the attack on democracy was pushed by law enforcement to put an end to political dissent. This evidence-free conspiracy theory has been pushed hard by right-wing media and by Mr Trump himself, including in speeches and in his legal battle against his federal indictment in Washington DC.

The director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, Michael Hanmer, called the results “chilling”.

“From a historical perspective, these results would be chilling to many analysts,” he told The Post.

While Republicans have differing views, Democrats are mostly united in the belief that the Capitol attack was a violent democratic threat and that Mr Trump was responsible. Independents mostly agree with Democrats on this issue.

“In the current context of hyper-partisanship, there seem to be some divisions among Republicans,” Mr Hanmer said.

More than a third of Americans think that Mr Biden’s election was illegitimate, meaning that the number of people who doubt his victory has increased compared to two years ago. This comes in the face of the litany of audits and nationally televised hearings with officials and Trump aides who testified there was no fraud and no evidence the election was stolen.

In December 2021, 69 per cent of Americans said Mr Biden was legitimately elected – a figure that now stands at 62 per cent. Today, 31 per cent of Republicans believe Mr Biden’s win was legitimate, compared with 39 per cent in 2021.

Among all Americans, 36 per cent don’t think Mr Biden’s win was legitimate.

Older Americans and those with college degrees are more likely than younger people to believe that Mr Biden was legitimately elected. Among those who get most of their news from Fox News, only about three in 10 think Mr Biden’s win was legitimate.

A number of voters who spoke to The Post pointed to debunked claims of voter fraud, such as the false assertion that election workers in Georgia were seen on video adding fake ballots. The women in the video were awarded $148m in damages from one of the top advocates of that false claim, former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

While most Americans believe the attack on the Capitol was a threat to democracy, few Republicans think so.

Fifty-five per cent of Americans think the riot was “an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten” – the same is true for 24 per cent of Republicans, 86 per cent of Democrats and 53 per cent of independents. Only 17 per cent of Trump voters agree, while 89 per cent of Biden voters do.

Meanwhile, 72 per cent of Republicans think that “too much is being made of the storming of the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021 and it is time to move on”.

Similarly, only 18 per cent of Republicans think that the January 6 protesters were “mostly violent” – compared to 26 per cent in January 2021. At this time, 77 per cent of Democrats and 54 per cent of independents agree that the protesters were mostly violent, with only small changes compared to two years ago.

Republicans are now also more defensive when it comes to Mr Trump. In December 2021, 60 per cent of all Americans said Mr Trump bears “a great deal” or “a good amount” of responsibility for the Capitol riot – that figure is now 53 per cent. This change is based on a drop among Republicans – 14 per cent now say he’s culpable compared to 27 per cent in 2021.

Fifty-six per cent of Americans think that Mr Trump is guilty of a crime in connection to the riot – nine in 10 Democrats think he’s guilty of a criminal conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election results. Meanwhile, seven in 10 Republicans think he’s innocent. Among independents, 58 per cent think he’s guilty and 32 per cent think he’s innocent.

Despite there being no evidence for his claims, 77 per cent of Republicans believe Mr Trump’s argument that he’s being politically targeted by the Department of Justice. Fifty-seven per cent of all Americans say the department is “holding Trump accountable under the law like anyone else”.

But only 46 per cent of all Americans think Mr Trump’s actions in connection to January 6 should disqualify him from the presidency.

About seven in 10 Americans think Mr Trump will not concede if he loses in 2024. Sixty-five per cent say they believe Mr Biden will accept the results if he loses.

Almost half of Republicans don’t think Mr Trump would accept the results, with 73 per cent of independents and 93 per cent of Democrats thinking the same.