Democratic debates: All bets are off after Harris and Warren dominated and Biden took a hit

Analysis: Race thrown open after fiery exchanges between rivals

All bets are off. That’s the simplest way to sum up where we stand after two nights of debates involving a diverse cast of 20 people, seeking to be the Democratic Party’s nominee to take on Donald Trump.

Joe Biden entered the debates as the frontrunner, but has emerged seriously wounded. Kamala Harris seized the momentum, in large parts because of her attacks on Biden. Elizabeth Warren was even more impressive than her supporters could have expected, coming across as smart, prepared and likeable.

Much of the US media believes Julian Castro also advanced his cause, while Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders probably did enough to hold their ground. They certainly made no obvious blunders.

US presidential politics is full of such moments that can make or break a candidate. As far back as 1976, Gerald Ford helped Jimmy Carter on his way to the Oval Office when he insisted there had been no expansion of Soviet power in eastern Europe, something that so stunned the moderators he was asked to confirm the point, which he did.

The unimpressive Dan Quayle took a mauling from Democrat Lloyd Bentsen during the 1988 vice presidential debate, when he dared to compare himself to the assassinated John F “Jack” Kennedy. “Senator, I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy,” Bentsen declared.

To that collection of maulings, we can now add Harris’s takedown of Biden over his record on race relations. In an attack she had clearly prepared for, given that her social media team were ready to illustrate her point in real time with photographs of her as a child, she talked about Biden’s alleged defence of working with segregationists, at a time she was having to be bussed to school in California.

“I do not believe you are a racist,” she said. “But I also believe – and it’s personal and it was hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senators who built their reputations and career on the segregation of race in this country.”

Biden looked stunned, and struggled to respond. She was mischaracterising his position, he claimed, before claiming his allotted time to answer had run out.

The former vice president’s camp has said his campaign saw a spike in donations during the debate, and Biden was back speaking again, in Chicago, on Friday. What is certainly the case, is that the 76-year-old did not look happy all evening – tense and ill at ease, compared to the relaxed and sometimes overly garrulous person people recognised as a senator and Barack Obama’s vice president.

Was he wondering whether this had been a big mistake after all, that he was too out of touch, and too old, as another candidate, Eric Swalwell, suggested?

It is too early to write Biden off. Just as there are endless stories of candidates having bad nights in debates and campaigns, there are almost as many stories of recovery. In 2012, Obama bounced back from a lacklustre, smirking encounter with Mitt Romney in their first debate, to recover his mojo and win reelection.

Most famous, perhaps, was the line Ronald Reagan delivered during his second debate with Walter Mondale in 1984. Reagan, than aged 73 and having looked confused during their first encounter – some say a possible early sign of the Alzheimer’s disease which he made public in 1994 – was asked how he would hold up under pressure in the event of something like the Cuban missile crisis.

“I will not make age an issue in this campaign,” he purred, smiling at the 54-year-old Mondale. “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

So while Biden ought not to be dismissed – there are 12 debates in total, and the Iowa caucus is not until 3 February – this week’s debate certainly opened up the field. We can expect to see a jump in the numbers of both Harris and Warren, and perhaps for Buttigieg and Castro.

Harris and Warren’s standing will probably also be helped by the fact there were six women taking part this week. Unlike in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the sole candidate, the presence of six women seeking the nomination probably makes gender less of an issue, even if not all of those women performed as powerfully as Harris and Warren.

Biden will now know that when Democrats gather for their next debates in Detroit on 30-31 July, it will be open season on him. By then, his campaign ought to have agreed on some more solid defence. On his comments over working with segregationists, it is still not too late for him to apologise, say he was wrong, and seek to move on.

He also ought to be ready to punch back at Harris, if they appear together on the same stage. Biden started to do this on Thursday night when he pointed out that while she had been a public prosecutor – indeed, one with a controversial record – he had been a public defender.

It was a point he decided not to pursue, but it is likely either he, or somebody else will do so now that Harris has put herself in the spotlight. The same is probably true for Warren.

Nobody ever said politics was a pleasant business.