More Americans are saying they are Republican than Democrat. Will it impact the election?

More voters are registered as Democrats but recent trends show a shift in self identification

Republicans may not be facing the uphill battle they anticipated in the 2024 presidential election as new polling shows more Americans are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats.

For decades, Democrats have outnumbered Republicans when it comes to voters’ party identification, giving them an edge in national general elections. But polling from NBC News, Gallup and Pew Research Center show Republicans are catching up, or tied, with Democrats for the number of Americans who identify themselves with a party.

“This is the under recognized game changer for 2024.  Republicans competing on a level playing field,” Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies wrote on X in May. 

The poll, conducted jointly with the Democratic polling firm Hart Research Associates, showed that among registered voters, 41 percent identify as Republicans while 40 percent identify as Democrats. That is a large deviation from similar polling conducted in 2020 which showed Democrats had a six-point advantage.

Similar results have come from other polls. Gallup found that in the first nine months of 2024, the number of people who identify as Republicans is equivalent the number of people who identify as Democrats.

In 2020, that same Gallup polling found Democrats held a four-point lead over Republicans.

Pew Research Center released results in April that showed 48 percent of registered voters are Republican or lean to the Republican Party while 49 percent are or lean Democratic. Four years ago, Democrats had a 5-point advantage over the GOP.

The trend indicates Republicans, and former president Donald Trump, have garnered more national support over the last four years than between 2008 and 2016.

Some pollsters credit the change to the growing number of Latino voters supporting Trump. Traditionally, Latino voters lean toward Democratic candidates but the Trump campaign has successfully appealed to the demographic who they hope can hand them a win.

Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told the Wall Street Journal that the change in party identification takes some pressure off Trump.

“It’s a loose indicator that you have a number of people who are disappointed in the Democratic Party’s performance,” Ruffini said.

While the numbers are good for the GOP, it does not necessarily mean they will win the presidential election. Vice President Kamala Harris is still narrowly leading in most major national polls and similar trends emerged in the 2022 midterm election when Republicans incorrectly predicted a “red wave.”

While the polling shows interesting developments in political ideology trends, the numbers are not strong enough to serve as a safety blanket for the GOP.