Even after Trump's remarkably bad month, there's one issue that could give him another term

Trump has had a terrible month. But it's still the economy, stupid. And that means he could still win, writes Washington Bureau Chief John T Bennett

Donald Trump returns from Tulsa after campaign rally with low attendance (AP)

Donald Trump looked the part of a wounded political animal early Sunday morning as he walked into the White House after rallying at a half-empty arena, his necktie undone and lying around his slumped shoulders. His walk was a bit more laboured than usual.

But even as his official return to the campaign trail perfectly capped one of the worst weeks of his term, Washington insiders and polls suggest while the president is losing ground to former Vice President Joe Biden, there is one issue on which voters still think he is the stronger candidate. And it just happens to be cited by voters as the most important issue in many polls.

As one Washington GOP insider told The Independent: "When you look, I mean really look, beyond the 'Who would you vote for today?' or the approval ratings questions in all these polls, you'll see that it's still the economy, stupid."

The source was referring to the now-famous line from former Bill Clinton adviser James Carville, who uttered the phrase to sum up what he concluded that year's presidential campaign between his boss and then-President George HW Bush would be mostly about. He was right.

Mr Trump and his campaign team are hoping Mr Carville's insightful quip will apply to his bid for a second term, especially as more and more states continue reopening their economies even as Covid-19 cases are increasing in some states that are furthest along the timeline of trying to get back to normal.

Several recent polls that appear to spell trouble for the president indicate his drumbeat about having built a strong economy before the coronavirus outbreak and his vow to do so again is likely his strongest message five months from Election Day.

A CNN-SSRS survey conducted this month gives the former VP a 14 point national lead over the incumbent. But when asked which candidate they think would do the best job handling the economy, 51 per cent chose Mr Trump (46 per cent went with Mr Biden).

Then there's a more-recent Economist-YouGov poll. It gives Mr Biden a 9-point national lead, but again provides the president and his campaign team a glimmer of hope even after only 6,200 people showed up to his Tulsa rally in a 19,000-seat arena.

Asked if the economy would get better or worse under Mr Biden, only 29 per cent said better. Thirty-six per cent said worse. Asked the same about the president, 36 per cent said better. While 40 per cent said worse, his 7-point advantage on predictions of an improved economy is significant.

And GOP insiders say the president would be wise to focus on the economy hard as he revives his campaign rallies and tries to make the election about his economic record versus Mr Biden's time in the Senate as as Barack Obama's two-term VP -- complete with the Obama administration's slow-but-steady economic growth.

"There's no question that Trump is going backwards on the Electoral map. But as bad as the last few weeks have been, I do think it's recoverable," the Republican insider said. "He's down nationally. But maybe the press and the Democrats have learned their lesson from last time about national polls. Probably not, I think.

"President Trump is within the margin of error in those five or six battleground states that are really going to matter," the insider said. "That's what their (Trump campaign) internal polling is telling them. It's bad, but it's certainly not catastrophic. And there's a long, long way to go before the finish line."

Mr Biden widened his lead during the coronavirus outbreak and national lock down, but he gained even more ground following the death of George Floyd while in police custody in Minneapolis. (Mr Floyd was black. The officers involved in his death were all white.) There's the CNN-SSRS and Economist-YouGov poll, then there is one from Fox News that gives the former Veep a 14-point lead. RealClear Politics' average of those and other surveys gives Mr Biden a 9.5-point national lead as of midday Monday.

"The protests and the riots damaged Trump more than Covid because, as much as the Biden folks try to spin it, he made the economy better. That's just the bottom line," the GOP insider said. "To take that kind of pounding during the protests and still show that number is why he has plenty of life here."

Democrats and Trump critics -- and, yes, major media outlets -- have spent many hours and catchy headlines noting Tulsa's BOK Center was not close to capacity on Saturday night. And Mr Trump reverted to some of the racially charged phrases and messages that helped him win in 2016.

But he also spent some time talking up the state of the economy before the Covid-19 outbreak and since states have moved along the re-opening process.

"Everybody would come in to see me: presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, and dictators," Mr Trump said, though choosing an odd group to help make his point: "Dictators would even come in and say, 'Congratulations on the economy.' And then, the plague came in and now, what we're doing is we're doing it again and it's going fast."

Analysts expect Mr Trump will continue to label all protesters, as he did last week, "lowlifes," and return to his hard line rhetoric about immigrants. But they are offering the White House and the Trump campaign some free advice: Remember 2018, when the president used such issues in the mid-term congressional elections rather than focusing almost exclusively on a then-strong economy.

"He is going to continue to highlight the racial divisions. Unless the public starts to feel much more optimistic, however," said Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, "the approach will probably have about as much success as the marauding caravan that was creeping toward the border in 2018. His base loved it. But the GOP still got creamed."