Democrats fear Trump could win enough Latino support to win election - despite hardline immigration polices

Polls show president’s support among this constituency steadily growing

Senior Latino politicians have warned Donald Trump’s growing support among Hispanic voters could be enough to help him secure reelection in November.

On the eve of the caucus in Nevada, a state where around 30 per cent of the population is Latino, Democratic candidates have been told to sharply raise their game as they court the Hispanic community, which in 2020 will be the second-largest voting group.

Polls suggest support for Mr Trump among Latinos has grown from 28 per cent in the 2016 election to 30 per cent, despite his hardline immigration policies. While that is only a small increase, given Democrats lost the 2016 race by fewer than 100,000 votes, such slim margins could be critical.

“Democrats need to do much better reaching out to Latino voters,” Kristian Ramos, a political strategist and former spokesperson for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, told The Independent.

“There are 60m Latinos in the US and they are spread all over the country. Some are newly arrived and some have been here for a long time. They have different interests, and they are interested in issues such as the economy, and education.”

Mr Ramos said when Democratic candidates did engage with Latino voters, it was usually about the issue of immigration or asylum. He said this was an important and emotional topic, but not the only one. “Let’s talk about everything,” said Mr Ramos, who founded the DC-based group Autonomy Strategies.

While some Latinos support Mr Trump and the Republicans because of religious beliefs, others are attracted by his talk of building a strong economy, he said. Last summer, vice president Mike Pence formed the Latinos for Trump group in Miami, as part of an effort to win over more supporters.

Mr Ramos’ comments came as Democrats in Nevada hold the party’s third primary vote in a state with the fifth largest Latino population by percentage, and where many of those voters hold unionised jobs in the the Las Vegas hospitality industry.

This year, for once, the powerful Culinary Workers Union Local 226 did not endorse a candidate, though its leadership did criticise Bernie Sanders’ healthcare proposal, saying their members wished to keep their private plans.

After the votes in the Iowa and New Hampshire, both overwhelmingly white, Saturday’s caucus is seen as a crucial test of whether candidates can appeal to voters of colour.

Polls suggest Mr Sanders currently leads among Latino voters, both in Nevada and nationally. The Vermont senator has 30 per cent support nationally and 33 per cent support in Nevada, according to a Univision poll released this week. He was followed by Joe Biden in second place both nationally and in Nevada, and Michael Bloomberg who is third nationally, and Tom Steyer who polls third in Nevada.

Mr Ramos said based on exit polling from 2008, 2012 and 2016, Democrats needed to win 70 per cent of Latino votes to be sure of victory. Right now, a generic Democrat polls at 65 per cent, while Mr Sanders polls at 67. In 2008, Barack Obama won election with 67 per cent Latino support, while Hillary Clinton lost with 66 per cent of the vote four years ago.

Congressman Joaquin Castro, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and whose twin brother Julián launched a failed bid for he Democratic nomination, has endorsed Elizabeth Warren for the presidency. Polls put her support among Latinos at 10 per cent nationally, ahead of Pete Butttigieg, who came first in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, but who scores just five points from Latinos.

Speaking after a forum on immigration and asylum organised by Amnesty International and held at the College of Southern Nevada North Las Vegas Campus in the diverse north east of the city, he said Democrats had in the past failed to make enough effort to connect with people who were out of the habit of voting.

“Often times folks have not voted before and so the campaigns have not knocked on their doors They are ignored,” he said.

“That has changed as campaigns have made an earnest effort to reach out. Elizabeth Warren has talked about not only immigration and asylum, but what I would call an infrastructure of opportunity for Latinos and all Americans. Great schools and universities, strong healthcare, and an economy build around well paying jobs so that if people work hard they can support themselves and their families. And these are issues that matter to Latino families.”

Verenice Gaizan, 21, a student of psychology, said she would like to see more Latinos in politics. She said often, people sought to speak for the Latino community when they were not part of it.

“It would certainly good to have more representation,” she said. “We often feel that as Latinos our voices are not heard.”