Gaza, Ukraine, and beyond: What a second Trump term means for the world
From how he would handle bloody wars ravaging the Middle East to promises of mass deportation to Latin America, Bel Trew delves into what the landscape of a Trump presidency may look like
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Your support makes all the difference.Donald Trump has won a historic second term in office, telling adoring fans that America handed him “a political victory that our country has never seen before.”
As the dust settles on what was a brutal night for the Democrats, people around the world are scrambling to make sense of what a Trump return to the White House will mean for international politics.
Along the campaign trail, the former president has been clear that he will make radical changes to U.S. foreign relations and will pursue an “America First” policy.
The U.S. “is being taken advantage of by every country all over the world, including our allies,” he told a recent rally in the swing state of Michigan, promising a “new golden age.”
“And in many cases, our allies are worse than our so-called enemies,” he added, quoting a now-favorite line.
He has also made bold claims about the state of the world. He has claimed that Russia’s war in Ukraine would not have happened if he had been in office and that he would be able to end the conflict within 24 hours if re-elected.
He warned supporters that if he does not return to office, Israel would “cease to exist.” He has promised to stage the “largest deportation operation in American history,” causing concerns in Latin America.
This follows a history of erratic behavior in global affairs, reversing long-established U.S. foreign policy and even occasionally embracing dictators.
The Middle East: “Most pro-Israeli president in U.S. history” while Palestinian officials warn of annexation, ethnic cleansing
It is too early to tell exactly how it impacted the numbers, but the rage among Arab American voters against the Biden administration for the slaughter in the Middle East was evident on Wednesday.
An “Abandon Harris” campaign—centered on the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s unprecedented bombardment of Gaza—appears to have gained traction in key swing states.
But what would a Trump presidency mean for a region already in ruins and teetering on the edge of a bloody multi-state conflict?
Trump has publicly called for an end to Israel’s devastating war in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 attacks but has reportedly offered his private support to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his offensive against Iran’s allies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to The Washington Post, citing sources familiar with a recent phone conversation, Trump told Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.”
When news broke of Trump’s victory, Netanyahu and his son Yair expressed the Israeli position in enthusiastic tweets.
“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” the Israeli prime minister said on X, adding that it signaled a “new beginning… to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
His son Yair added, “Hallelujah!!! The most pro-Israeli president in America’s history is back!”
The enthusiasm was shared by Israeli reservist Brigadier-General Amir Aviv, who served as a deputy division commander in Gaza and as an aide-de-camp for IDF Chief of Staff Lt. General Moshe Yaalon.
He says he expected Trump “to push a much stronger policy about Iran.”
“The reality is that we have a historic opportunity to really dismantle the whole Shia axis,” he tells The Independent, referencing Israel’s wars in Lebanon and Gaza and exchange of fire with Iran.
“I think this is a defining moment that enables the U.S. to really achieve a big victory over this axis… I hope President Trump seizes the moment and really pushes this policy.”
Palestinian political leaders painted a bleak and violent picture to The Independent. While they believed Biden’s unwavering financial, military, and political support for Israel’s bloody wars cost Kamala Harris the election, they do not see a bright future under a Trump presidency either, given his actions during his previous term as president.
In his first term, Trump controversially endorsed Israel’s annexation of the occupied Golan Heights, moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem — recognizing the contested city as Israel’s capital — and in 2018, eliminated U.S. funding to UNRWA, the United Nations aid program for Palestinian refugees and the largest UN agency operating in Gaza (which Israel has recently banned).
Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council and head of the Palestinian National Initiative, tells The Independent that even if Trump and Netanyahu clash over active combat, other risks remain.
“The two largest risks are the possibility that he would give a green light to Netanyahu to annex the occupied West Bank or parts of the West Bank… and that he would allow the ethnic cleansing Netanyahu is trying to conduct in the Gaza Strip,” he says.
“If [Trump] does, this will mean the end of anything called peace in the region.”
“Wake-up call for NATO,” worries for Ukraine
Trump has been very vocal in his criticisms of NATO, accusing European members of relying on U.S. funding and vowing the U.S. would only come to the aid of its allies if they contribute financially. There are concerns he would pull out of the alliance altogether.
NATO Chief Mark Rutte was quick to congratulate Trump on X, emphasizing the importance of his leadership in “keeping our Alliance strong.”
President Zelensky, undoubtedly anxious about continued support for Ukraine, also took to X to congratulate Trump writing that Kyiv relies “on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”
Rose Gottemoeller, who was deputy secretary-general of NATO during Trump’s last term in office, says a Trump win is a “wake-up call” for NATO, which will inevitably become “a different alliance.”
“NATO has been trying to ‘Trump-proof’ itself for a while,” she tells The Independent.
“Donald Trump has made no secret that he thought allies in both the East and West were freeloaders. He has been very tough about that in the campaign… warning allies in Europe that don’t pay up that Putin can do whatever he wants with them.”
While Trump campaign rhetoric has recently softened — especially with comments from his running mate JD Vance about not abandoning NATO — Gottemoeller warned that Trump’s biggest change might be “slow-rolling or not sending” a U.S. representative. This would mean the “de facto receding of U.S. leadership.”
This will be felt most acutely by Ukraine. Trump has stated he would not maintain the current level of assistance to Ukraine and would push for an early ceasefire with Russia.
“It would be a difficult period for the Ukrainians… Trump feels like he has an inside track with Putin. He famously said he could make peace in 24 hours,” Gottemoeller continues.
“The ceasefire he would force early would likely mean Russians on part of Ukrainian territory. Zelensky has said he doesn’t want a single Russian soldier on a single centimeter of Ukrainian soil.”
Pivot to Asia, tariffs on Chinese imports
Meanwhile, the U.S. under Trump is expected to continue focusing on China, Gottemoeller says.
“The urge in U.S. geopolitics and at the geostrategic level is the pivot to Asia—already NATO and the EU have had to consider how to maintain their defense and deterrence of Russia with less U.S. engagement,” she adds.
Trump has vowed to enact an aggressive protectionist trade agenda, with proposed blanket tariffs potentially as high as 20 percent on all imported goods from all countries.
He has specifically threatened to impose tariffs up to 60 percent on U.S. imports of Chinese goods, which some experts warn could pose major growth risks for the world’s second-largest economy.
“Competition with China is likely to be the priority of a second Trump term and shape security policy in the region,” writes Dr. Phillip Shetler-Jones, RUSI’s Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security.
“A second Trump presidency will cause concern in the region about disruptions flowing from the intensification of the ‘America First’ principle in U.S. trade policy.”
Latin America: “largest deportation operation in American history”
Trump’s campaign rhetoric has undoubtedly worried those south of the U.S. borders. He has spoken about over 200 percent tariffs on cars coming from Mexico, U.S. military action against drug cartels, and the “largest deportation operation in American history.”
While Trumps says this would focus on “criminals,” this deportation plan aims to send millions back to their home countries, without giving many details. He has simultaneously campaigned on restricting immigration, which will likely hit Mexico the hardest.
Trump has said he would restore his 2019 “remain in Mexico” program, which forced asylum seekers of certain nationalities to wait in Mexico for the resolution of their cases before attempting to enter US.
Trump also told Time magazine earlier this year he would reinstate the COVID-19-era Title 42 policy, which allowed U.S. border authorities to quickly expel migrants back to Mexico without the chance to claim asylum.
He has also talked about calling on Congress to fund an additional 10,000 Border Patrol agents.
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