Comeback kid Joe Biden still has a long road ahead after South Carolina success

After a much-needed primary win, the former vice president faces Super Tuesday with a renewed sense of purpose but no clear path forward, writes Alex Woodward

(AFP/Getty)

Joe Biden declared his victory in South Carolina earlier this week when asked whether he would drop out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination should Bernie Sanders end up carrying the state. He responded: “I’m going to win South Carolina.”

His victory had been telegraphed for weeks as his campaign shifted its focus from early primary states to the first one in the south, a stronghold of African-American support where the former vice president could expend his decades of political capital as proof that he can carry a diverse electorate.

While Biden’s campaign remained focused on winning South Carolina, his challengers have stressed that it’s just one state among many as they look ahead to Super Tuesday and bank on earning a significant chunk of delegates in states where Biden has spent little time or money.

Black voters in South Carolina’s open primary have ultimately selected the candidates that went on to earn the party’s nomination in 2008 and 2016. It’s the most-diverse electorate yet – 60 percent of its Democratic voters are black, and 55 percent are women.

Biden’s gamble gave him a much-needed win, after his once-ascendent campaign fell to poor finishes in the first three primary states. It’s a win that his campaign hopes to point to as its litmus test for similar election outcomes with other diverse states, and a reversal of fortune that gives him momentum in the challenging territory ahead. For voters who doubted whether he could pull off a win, the campaign can point to his sweeping victory in South Carolina.

But the state and its voters, most of whom are African American, are not monolithic, particularly in the 2020 race where Democrats are split among several candidates and not rallying around a single person they believe can beat Donald Trump in November.

Sanders didn’t “lose” in South Carolina – he passed the delegate threshold, after capturing a clear lead in the race thus far with history-making popular vote wins in the first three consecutive primaries.

On 3 March, 14 other states will also hold their primary elections, with candidates vying for their share of more than 1,300 delegates – representing more than a third of all delegates in the primary race.

In California, roughly three million votes have already been cast.

With any other election cycle, a clear “winner” would begin to emerge in the ides of March as the party prepares to head into convention this summer, but the crowded field torn along ideological lines between moderates and a progressive left has clouded the race ahead.

Pete Buttigieg, who has emerged as a frontrunner behind Sanders in the previous primaries, spent more on ads in South Carolina than anyone except Tom Steyer, who spent nearly $24m in the weeks ahead of Saturday’s election. Buttigieg ended up with only 2 per cent of the black vote, and Steyer dropped out of the race entirely.

The state was Biden’s to beat, and he’ll likely rely on his win to urge other moderates like Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to clear his path as the moderate frontrunner who can attract nonwhite voters.

Whether Biden can rely on the same test – convincing those voters that he’s the Democrat most likely to be able to defeat Trump – depends on the strength of his rivals’ campaigns