Buttigieg drops out: Which candidates are hurt and helped – and what happens next for Mayor Pete

Just a year ago, nobody knew his name. Now his supporters could help blunt a potential Sanders nomination

Just under a month ago, as Democrats scrambled to certify results in the Iowa caucuses after an election app went on the fritz, Pete Buttigieg stood before a crowd in the Hawkeye State and thanked those voters for making history.

It would be a while before those results were actually in, but Mr Buttigieg and his campaign were confident that he had won — and he did win — the most delegates in the state, propelling the campaign of a 38-year-old with scant political experience forward as a front-runner in the Democratic nomination for president.

Oh, how quickly things can change: on Sunday, Mr Buttigieg rerouted his plane to his home town of South Bend, Indiana. And, there, just weeks after that triumphant showing just two states to the west, Mr Buttigieg suspended his campaign.

The decision marked the latest scramble in a tumultuous primary season that saw Mr Buttigieg go from winner to loser quite fast, with the man who came in fourth place in Iowa, Joe Biden, rising to the top of the moderate field following a decisive win in South Carolina.

So, what will it mean that a once leading candidate has now suddenly dropped out? Here’s what you need to know.

Where he wants his votes to go
In announcing his withdrawal from the race, Mr Buttigieg said that he did not see a viable path towards victory in the Democratic race, but gave some suggestion as to what he would like his supporters to do now that he’s gone. He spoke of “unity” in the effort to defeat Donald Trump. His aides later said he did not want to be a “spoiler”.

But an adviser also told Reuters that he was dropping out in large part because he believed staying in the race could help Bernie Sanders, the current front-runner, to run away with the election. So, conventional wisdom would point to Mr Biden as the likely candidate, after his strong showing in South Carolina — not to mention Michael Bloomberg’s horrible debate performances — that has signalled to many within the moderate arm of the Democratic Party that he’s the guy to coalesce around.

Where they will actually go
This is a big question, especially with just a day (as of this writing) until voters head to the polls in Super Tuesday states (in many cases, early votes may have already been cast). It’s hard to say with certainty, even, if Mr Biden’s decisive victory in South Carolina on Saturday will tip the scales much.

Still, while it’s hard to say with certainty where his supporters might go, the absence of Mr Buttigieg has the very real chance of helping several candidates across the country, and hurting Mr Sanders.

That’s because many of the leading alternatives to Mr Sanders are flirting with the 15 per cent viability mark that is necessary to win delegates in state and congressional contests. (Mr Sanders, meanwhile, has less to worry about on that front and it is highly likely that he passes that threshold in virtually all of the 14 states to vote on Tuesday).

That means that Buttigieg supporters could help Elizabeth Warren, Mr Biden, Mr Bloomberg or even Amy Klobuchar to push past that threshold, and keep Mr Sanders from being the only candidate to receive delegates.

Here’s who Buttigieg supporters have said are their second-choice candidates
It’s worth remembering that voting blocs aren’t monoliths, and ideological purities aren’t necessarily the only factor for how voters might rank their candidates. By and large, voters have said beating Donald Trump in November is their biggest concern — so a relative progressive like Ms Warren might attract Buttigieg supporters in much the same way that relative moderates like Mr Biden or Ms Klobuchar might.

There are six contenders in the race now. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll released last month, Ms Klobuchar is the second choice for a good 26 per cent of Buttigieg voters, which makes her tied with Ms Warren, who also was named by 26 per cent of Buttigieg supporters as their second choice.

Behind those two were Mr Biden, at 19 per cent, and then Mr Sanders, at 11 per cent. Mr Bloomberg was the second choice for just 9 per cent of Buttigieg voters.

But, polls vary. A Morning Consult poll released in February, for instance, found Ms Warren to be the second choice for 19 per cent of Buttigieg voters, Mr Biden as second choice for 19 per cent of those voters as well, and Mr Sanders as second choice for 21 per cent of those voters. Another 17 per cent said Mr Bloomberg was their second choice in that poll. Ms Klobuchar was not listed.

What about the 'money primary'?
One astounding aspect of Mr Buttigieg's campaign was that he attracted the kinds of high dollar donors that have become mainstays of most major presidential campaigns in recent elections (Mr Sanders, and, to a lesser degree, Ms Warren are something of outliers on that front). And, through those massive fundraising totals, Mr Buttigieg was able to remain competitive with $24.7m raised in just the final months of 2019.

So, who might benefit from his departure? Well, at least one influential Democratic donor aligned with Mr Buttigieg, Orin Kramer, has already indicated he's backing Mr Biden, which is a move other donors are reportedly considering, according to the Wall Street Journal.

What's next for Mr Buttigieg
Now that he has dropped out of the race, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend has been heralded by columnists as a keen political talent, and one with a bright future in Democratic politics.

In the near term, he will likely be considering who to endorse in the Democratic race, assuming he hasn't decided who to throw his weight behind already. Mr Biden's campaign would certainly be hoping for that kind of recognition.

He has set himself up quite well for potential a high level appointment in a future Democratic administration. His supporters chanted "2024" when he dropped out of the race. Others have suggested he may have to wait a bit until the 2030s for that kind of presidential chance.