2020 election: Experts see trouble for Donald Trump as poll shows military members flocking to Joe Biden

Former US Army officer: "Military people are saying, 'Are you different or are you the same as other politicians?'"

Former military officials and political operatives see trouble for Donald Trump in a poll that shows active-duty troops are flocking to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden just two months before the November election.

Just over 41 per cent of those military personnel surveyed by Military Times say, if the election were held today, they would cast a ballot for the former Democratic vice president. Slightly more than 37 per cent say they would vote for the president. Four years ago, a version of the poll taken a month before Election Day gave Mr Trump the support of 40.5 per cent of those service members surveyed, compared to 20.6 per cent for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

The commander in chief's three-point drop with military members is less than his slippage with other groups, like suburban white woman, but is still statistically significant. What's more, Mr Biden is pilling 20 points higher with the group than Ms Clinton, suggesting a leftward slide.

Former military officials and political operatives point to Mr Trump's words not matching his actions as a big reason military members are flocking to the Democratic nominee. They also say his refusal to push back forcefully on Russia and his handling of domestic matters that affect military families as much as civilian ones.

"People see things working not the way they expected. As a candidate, President Trump said he would get us out of Iraq, get us out of Syria, and get us out of Afghanistan," said Daniel Davis, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who served in South Korea and did combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. "So it's natural to see a reduction in support.

"Military people are saying, 'Are you different or are you the same as other politicians?'" Mr Davis said. "His decisions to keep us in these forever wars is more poignant for us. No one talks about how your family looks at you and says, 'Why do you have to go back to Iraq? Why are you going back to Afghanistan? Why are there still Americans in Syria?'"

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, says the president likely turned off some military personnel after reports surfaced that the Russian government was paying Taliban forces to kill US troops in Afghanistan.

"Most military personnel believe Trump has mishandled the Russian offer of bounties on dead American soldiers," said Mr Bannon, who also believes troops are uncomfortable seeing their colleagues patrolling streets at home as the country deals with protests of perceived racial inequality. "An overwhelming majority of service men and women oppose the president's calls to use the military to put down civil disturbances," he said.

That cocktail of actions and inactions by the commander in chief is why 42 per cent of those military personnel surveyed by Military Times said they "strongly" disapprove of Mr Trump's time in office. That's a troubling shift for the Trump campaign: A version of the poll taken early in Mr Trump's presidency revealed 37 per cent of uniformed personnel viewed him unfavourably.

The results are just one part of what is becoming an increasingly complicated and confusing electoral map just two months before Election Day. Both parties are still trying to determine their best path to 270 Electoral College votes, and see reasons for hope and worry.

For the challenger: On the one hand, Mr Biden still has a statistically significant national lead and is up in many battleground states. On the other, Democrats are growing worried about Minnesota, a state that long has been a Democratic presidential lock, with the Biden campaign now spending money on advertising there.

For the incumbent: After a dismal summer that saw him drop in the polls, Mr Trump is hanging around and is within striking distance of Mr Biden, drawing closer in several key swing states as he hammers a law-and-order message that might resonate with the military voters he has been shedding. But on the other, his campaign is spending money in Georgia, which long as been a presidential red state.

The Military times poll did not ask military members about domestic issues, but experts say those weigh heavily on their minds, too.

"If the polls of the general public are any indication, military personal fault like their civilian friends and families fault the president for failing to effectively fight the Covid-19 pandemic that has killed more than 180,000 Americans and pushed millions of others into unemployment or bankruptcy," Mr Bannon said.

The poll was released the same week that the Lincoln Project, led by anti-Trump Republicans, announced a new leadership group composed of almost two dozen veterans, Blue and Gold Star family members and other military types.

"Our veterans, service members, and their families know what a leader should be and have seen first hand how Donald Trump has failed his sacred duty as Commander-in-Chief," Fred Wellman, the group's senior adviser for veterans affairs, said in a statement.

"Words are not enough to show support for them and now we continue to face a global pandemic amid efforts to undermine our national elections," he said. "So, now we are called upon to step up again and fight for our nation and volunteer at home to serve locally in our communities as poll workers and supporters when so many cannot because of their risks of illness."