‘We had to throw that in the garbage’: Democratic chair says he ignored polls that showed Biden up 17% in Wisconsin
‘We’ve been saying you have to fight as though you’re two points behind’
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Your support makes all the difference.The Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, Ben Wikler, has revealed that he dismissed a poll claiming Joe Biden was leading by 17 points in the state before 3 November’s election day.
In late October, an ABC/Washington Post poll was released that showed the Democratic nominee leading the incumbent, Donald Trump, by 17 percentage points in Wisconsin.
After a tense count overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday afternoon, Wisconsin was called for Mr Biden, which he won by around 0.6 per cent. The Trump campaign has called for a recount, according to Mediaite.
Poll aggregator RealClearPolitics’ final average before election day showed Mr Biden seven points up in Wisconsin, but Mr Wikler told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes on Wednesday evening that even a lead of that margin is not enough in modern elections.
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“Democratic turnout was up in every part of the state. It’s not red places getting redder, it’s blue places getting bluer. There were more Democrats in every community in our state. It’s just that with the Republican operation, Trump fired up a lot of people who were not showing up in polls,” Mr Wikler said.
“The polling error was similar to 2016. We’ve been saying you have to fight as though you’re two points behind even if the polls show you’re six points up. Thank goodness they did, because every piece made a difference."
Polls for Wisconsin in 2016’s election consistently showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with a lead of around six per cent over Mr Trump, but he managed to take the state by a margin of 0.77 per cent.
Hayes then jokingly told Mr Wikler: “You and I have spoken, and you’ve always had the kind of haunted look, and temperament of someone who thinks they’re in a 20,000-vote margin kind of race.”
Mr Wikler responded: “You know, we had to keep telling each other to ignore the polls,” before he then referenced the ABC/Washington Post survey.
“There was one poll that said we were 17 points up in the last two weeks, and you just had to crumple that up and throw it in the garbage and fight like the next call could be the one that found the voter who tipped the entire Electoral College,” he added.
The same poll was also criticised by Republican pollster Frank Lutz, who claimed that the survey was “polling malpractice”.
Speaking on Fox News on Wednesday, Mr Lutz, a regular commentator on US polling, said: “There are people who are calling for investigations of the pollsters who had Joe Biden winning by 10 points, 12 points.
“The biggest one of all is the Washington Post that had — as we’re watching in Wisconsin, a one point lead — the Washington Post poll just a few days ago had Joe Biden winning by 17 points.”
Mr Lutz added: “That’s not a mistake. That’s not an error. That’s polling malpractice, and you have to go to tremendous lengths to be able to get something that wrong so close to the election.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Twitter labelled a tweet from Mr Wikler, where he said: “There's no realistic path for Trump to pull ahead” in the state, and added: “Folks: Joe Biden just won Wisconsin.”
Before the election, the social media service said it would label tweets that claimed victory for a candidate prematurely, and on Wednesday, Twitter labelled Mr Wikler’s tweet: “Some votes may still need to be counted.”
Mr Biden was declared the winner of Wisconsin by the Associated Press a few hours later on Wednesday afternoon.
A Washington Post spokesperson told The Independent: “We are taking time after the election to review all our polling, including why our October Wisconsin poll overestimated Biden’s support, and will use the findings to strengthen future polling.
“The balance of Post-ABC polling this cycle contributed to our reputation for rigor, transparency and accuracy, including our poll in Florida, which showed Trump at 50 percent and Biden at 48 percent, within one point of the current vote margin.
“FiveThirtyEight has given our polls an A+ rating, noting that, on average, our results fall within 2.8 percentage points of the final vote margin.
The Independent has asked ABC News for comment.
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