US election: Americans head to polls to decide whether Trump gets four more years

‘If the president wins Florida and Arizona, we’re going to be at this for a few weeks,’ says one Republican strategist

Millions of Americans will join the nearly 100 million who have already cast ballots as they decide whether to hand Donald Trump another four-year term of bare-knuckle conservative populism or give Joe Biden’s promised methodical centre-left approach a try.

Over 97 million people have voted via some kind of early voting, nearly two-thirds of the entire number cast in the 2016 election, according to Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the school’s US Elections Project. Election Day will dawn after a feverish push by the president to secure enough votes in enough swing states to win four more years – he held 10 rallies on Sunday and Monday and 17 in just four days. On Election Day eve, he hit four battleground states with five campaign events.

Mr Trump has gained ground on Democratic nominee and former vice president Joe Biden in recent days, including a 7-percentage point swing in Iowa that one poll shows the president now leading 48 per cent to 41 per cent after the duo were tied there just one month ago.

Both candidates and political experts have described voters’ choice as the “most important election” maybe in US history.

“If President Trump is re-elected, he will accelerate his efforts to degrade and destabilise our constitutional protections: the separation of powers, the independence of the judiciary, the competence and neutrality of federal agencies, the freedom of the press, and the respect for the rule of law,” said Mark Rom, a Georgetown University professor.

“A President Biden would work to restore these institutions, as have all presidents in living memory,” he added. “If Biden is elected president, we can expect a most difficult presidential transition. It is safe to assume that the Trump administration will not cooperate in good faith to enable a smooth transition. Instead, we can expect obstruction at every point.”

“A big change in American society is the centralisation of political and economic power at the national level. The more complex society becomes, the more pressure there is to solve problems nationally. Healthcare is the best example. Biden supporters are comfortable with centralisation, Trump voters fight it,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon.

“D stands for Democrat and drive, while R represents Republican and reverse,” he added. “A Trump victory would be a win for the comfort of the 20th century status quo. A Biden win would constitute a desire to move decisively into the challenges of 21st century.”

Mr Trump has dismissed most polls conducted by private firms and news organisations for over four years, noting correctly their battleground surveys were far off in 2016. He kept that up as he headed for his possibly final rally as president.

‘We’re going to win this’

"We're going to win this," Mr Trump said in Traverse City, Michigan. "They're not way ahead … We see the real numbers."

His final rally, again in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he had held his last event in 2016, was vintage The Donald, warning Democrats want to “confiscate your guns” and appearing to purposely mispronounce Ms Harris’s first name and touting the throng of supporters at outside an airport hangar: “This is not the size of a crowd that’s going to lose the state of Michigan.”

Though he is trailing in most swing states, he kept his defiant bravado through his battleground state barnstorming, saying: “I think we’re going to win everything. I think tomorrow is going to be one of the greatest wins in the history of politics.”

The candidates and experts are also calling this election one of the clearest differences between the candidates’ policy stances, personalities and governing approach.

There’s Mr Trump: a self-described “outsider” even after four years as the leader of the free world and Washington’s Pied Piper, leading lawmakers, federal agencies, lobbyists and private-sector contractors following his every tweet and uttered syllable. Quick with an insult to try settling a score or grievance, the 45th president angered Democrats and some Republicans with his antics.

His hardline immigration policies included a border barrier he has not completed, despite some of his supporters’ claims, and a “travel ban” that denies entry to some individuals from Muslim-majority countries. He slashed tax rates, but Democrats complain the 2017 law that received only GOP support in Congress mostly helped wealthy individuals and corporations. He admitted publicly downplaying the coronavirus outbreak.

Then there’s Mr Biden: his campaign has played up his empathy after losing his first wife and young daughter in a car crash as a freshman senator, then his adult son, former Delaware attorney general Beau Biden, in 2015. The Biden camp says the former VP cares about helping people while Mr Trump cares only about helping himself, a charge the president has tried flipping on his foe over never-prosecuted allegations he and another son, Hunter Biden, used the office of the vice president for financial benefit.

The man who wants to become the 46th commander in chief is promising a return to the mostly-orderly years of presidents past after four years of Mr Trump’s chaotic, made-for-television style. Mr Biden is promising to fix parts of the 2011 Affordable Care Act, while Mr Trump wants it terminated, and has vowed to reach across the aisle to congressional Republicans after his opponent has mostly governed with his conservative base in mind.

'We’re watching you, governor’

With the polls appearing to tighten in Mr Trump’s favour, the president and his team are claiming mailed-in ballots should not be counted.

For months, he has claimed mass mail-in ballots, unlike absentee ones that require some level of ID and residence verification, automatically bring fraud. Election experts, however, disagree.

“You look at what’s going on in Philadelphia – we’re watching you, governor,” Mr Trump said at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania on Monday about its Democratic governor, Tom Wolf.

"Make sure your governor doesn’t cheat, because they are known for very bad things here,” he said without providing supporting data. "But we have a lot of eyes watching, a lot of very powerful eyes here. They don’t want that to happen.”

What’s more, Mr Trump on Sunday told reporters on the campaign trail with him that he plans to deploy his campaign lawyers immediately after the election is over, previewing a likely court fight over thousands or millions of mailed-in ballots.

“If the president wins Florida and Arizona, we’re going to be at this for a few weeks,” said one Republican strategist. “The Supreme Court has ruled on this about five or six times. The court has already shown, without [now-Justice Amy Coneny] Barrett that a governor’s change to mail-in voting follows what a state legislature has laid out, they’re going to butt out.

“But the court has been clear: if we determine a governor has gone beyond a state legislature's intent,” the strategist added, “we’re going to weigh in”.