Texas voter turnout surpasses 2016 numbers, hours before 2020 early vote concludes

Nearly 9.1 million people have already cast their ballot in state won by Trump in 2016

Texas has surpassed the state’s total voter turnout for the 2016 election, with hours still to go before early voting concludes.

By the morning of Friday 30 October, 9,009,850 people had cast their ballot in Texas since early voting began on 13 October. The state’s overall turnout for the 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was 8,969,226. 

More people have so far cast their ballot early in Texas than any other state, with early voting closing on Friday evening before reopening on election day on 3 November.

Texas is closely followed by California, where more than 8.4 million of its residents have cast their ballots early, and Florida, which has so far seen at least 7.4 million people already vote.

At least 3.5 million people who have never voted in a national election before have already voted in Texas, according to Fox 4.

Election officials and advocacy groups have been urging US residents to vote early this year in-person or via mail-in voting, because of fears of long queues forming on 3 November due to coronavirus measures.

A record turnout is predicted for the election, as by 29 October more than 80 million Americans had voted early by post or in person.

This figure is now more than 58 per cent of the total number of people who voted in the 2016 election, according to the US Elections Project.

Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who also runs the US Elections Project, has predicted that the US will see a record turnout of about 150 million people for November’s election, which would represent 65 per cent of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.

Voting before election day has been increasing in recent years, as the amount of people who cast their ballot in a polling station on the day has seen a steady decline, according to the US Election Assistance Commission.

The total number of early or mail-in votes more than doubled from nearly 25 million in 2004 to 57 million in 2016, the commission reported.

President Trump has repeatedly railed against mail-in voting, by falsely saying that it will lead to widespread fraud.

In July, he said that he might not accept a losing result in November’s election, because “mail-in voting is going to rig” it. The president voted early in-person last week in Florida.

The increase in early voting in Texas can not just be attributed to fears around long queues and coronavirus precautions, as governor Greg Abbott gave the state’s residents six more days to cast their ballot early this year.

Texas has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter defeated Republican incumbent Gerald Ford in 1976.

President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by more than 8 percentage points in Texas in 2016, and will need to take the state again if he is to be reelected.

FiveThirtyEight, a polling organisation that creates an average from all public surveys, currently shows a much tighter race this year, with President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 1.3 percentage points, with just four days to go until 3 November’s election.