Michigan 2020 election: Polls, predictions and what’s at stake in the swing state

A livid feud with a Democratic governor colours the president’s attitude to a state he badly needs to hold

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Donald Trump is making a last-minute play to repeat of his proudest moments in 2016 – and he can scarcely afford to lose it.

What’s at stake

If Donald Trump is to hold the Electoral College in 2020, there are only a few plausible ways to do it – and most of them run through Michigan. Its 16 electoral votes would take a big chunk out of Mr Trump’s majority. And while Pennsylvania (20 votes) may be the most glorified of this year’s battlegrounds, the Wolverine State’s size, complexity and symbolic importance put it almost level.

Last time around

Ever since he kicked off his campaign in 2015 Mr Trump has repeatedly cited Michigan as evidence of “American carnage”, meaning the decline of industry and ongoing decrepitude of various post-industrial areas.

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In the end, Michigan was Mr Trump’s narrowest statewide win in 2016, narrower even than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with a margin of just 10,704 votes or 0.23 points. As in the other rust belt states that cost her the election, Hillary Clinton’s loss has been blamed on a combination of relatively anaemic turnout in urban, Blacker areas compared with whiter towns and rural areas.

On the ground

Mr Trump’s relationship to Michigan has lately been defined by his row with Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has been one of the nation’s most outspoken critics of the Trump administration’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

She riled up the president in March and April by demanding the government declare a state of emergency to allow her to acquire much-needed supplies. Mr Trump responded by dismissing her as “that woman in Michigan” and repeatedly demanding she end strict lockdown measures to “liberate” her state.

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His rhetoric has fuelled tense protests in the state capital, Lansing. Ms Whitmer was more recently the target of a militia group who planned to kidnap, “try” and possibly execute her for treason. The president responded to the news by accusing Ms Whitmer of ingratitude to law enforcement for saving her while repeating his demands to end the lockdown.

The home stretch

Polls indicate that compared to other Trump-held swing states, Michigan has been slipping from his grip further and faster, with late-in-the-game polls putting him anything from 6 to 10 or more points behind Joe Biden. The president has dashed to the state several times in his marathon of closing rallies; at one chilly outdoor event on 1 November, he told the crowd: “If I didn’t love you, I wouldn’t be standing here, because it’s freezing!”