Is the election actually over?

There’s more left to endure

On Saturday, major media organisations projected that Joe Biden will become the next president of the US. The announcement prompted celebrations in the streets from Mr Biden's supporters and - for some - a collective sigh of relief that the five-day election had finally come to a close.  

While the marathon press coverage, constant Twitter refreshing, and frenzied mathematics of NBC’s Steve Kornacki may be finished, there is still a sizeable group of Americans who believe the election is far from over.

Donald Trump's most ardent supporters believe the president still has a pathway to electoral victory through legal challenges meant to disqualify massive numbers of votes. Mr Trump alleges the votes in question have been cast illegally.  

So who is right? Is the election over? Are Mr Trump's supporters in denial? Are Mr Biden's supporters being naive?  

Officially, the election is still in progress. Ballots from several states are still being processed. While the number of ballots being processed in the days after the election may be higher than normal, it is by no means abnormal.  

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Most counties have certification deadlines weeks after the election. Both California and West Virginia have county deadlines that allow them to process ballots for up to a month after the election.

After the votes are certified, each state's electoral body - better known as the Electoral College - convenes to cast their votes for the presidency. Electors cast their votes in line with the will of their state's electorate.  

But Mr Trump and his supporters are not arguing about the semantics of when an election ends - not really. What they are arguing is not that the election is over, but that it never happened legally. They claim the results are a fraud and that Mr Trump is the rightful winner, despite there so far being zero evidence to support those claims.

Can Trump still win?  

Current projections show Mr Biden winning with at least 290 electoral votes, dwarfing Mr Trump, who only has 214.  

In order to win, Mr Trump would need to flip several states that are currently trending towards a Biden victory.  

The most crucial state for Mr Trump to flip is Pennsylvania, but Mr Biden's lead is only growing in the Keystone State. With 99 per cent of the votes counted, Mr Biden leads Mr Trump by less than a percentage point. The ballots left to be counted are expected to favour Mr Biden, making a last minute victory for Mr Trump all but impossible.  

Donald Trump cannot win the election.  

What Mr Trump can do is challenge the results of the election in the courts and demand recounts.

Recounts

Mr Trump has indicated he plans to pursue recounts in several states where electoral margins are slim.  

The states where Mr Trump has or is likely to call for recounts are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  

Different states have different requirements that must be fulfilled before a recount can be triggered. Some states do not have strict circumstantial requirements, but do require the campaign requesting the recount to pay for the cost.  

Even if circumstances allow for a recount, it is no guarantee of a different outcome.  

Recounts rarely result in a large enough swing to alter the results of an election.  

Even Trump ally and former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker said a recount was not likely to change the results in the state. He called Mr Trump's 20,000 vote disparity a "high hurdle" to clear.  

In Pennsylvania - a state critical for Mr Trump to take if he has any hope of defeating Mr Biden - he trails by more than 40,000 votes, and Mr Biden's lead is still growing.  

Mr Trump's best chance to flip a state through a recount is in Georgia, where he is currently trailing Mr Biden by just over 10,000 votes. In Arizona Mr Trump has a 17,000 vote deficit and in Nevada he faces a 36,000 vote disparity.  

It is likely that Georgia will hold a recount.  

Though Mr Trump's chances of securing the presidency through recounts are extremely slim, they are not his only strategy; he also hopes to have votes entirely disqualified by convincing judges that they were cast fraudulently.  

Legal Battles

Mr Trump has not been shy about his endgame; he wants the US Supreme Court to rule on the results of the election. He appointed three of the six conservative judges on the court and his advisers have openly expressed an expectation that those justices will favour the president as a result.  

“We’re waiting for the United States Supreme Court, which — of which the president has nominated three justices, to step in and do something," Harmeet Dhillon said. "And hopefully Amy Coney Barrett will come through.”

The Supreme Court is intended to make decisions without regard for partisan interests.  

Even if the Supreme Court does favour Mr Trump, he still has to get a case to the court, and he has yet to explain what case might result in a ruling in which the Supreme Court hands him an electoral victory.  

Last week, judges in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan have tossed out Mr Trump's lawsuits because they lack the needed evidence to justify further court involvement.  

In one lawsuit Mr Trump's lawyers - who claimed Republican observers were not allowed to witness the ballot count - later admitted that there were, in fact, Republican observers watching the ballots.  

"I'm sorry, then what's your problem?" US District Judge Paul Diamond asked.

In other instances, judges have dismissed the cases due to the presented evidence being little more than hearsay.  

In Nevada, Mr Trump's lawyers argued that observers should be able to get close enough to the poll workers to hear everything they're saying - regardless of the worsening pandemic.  

The judge responded by asking "at what point does this get ridiculous?"

Thus far, Mr Trump has only managed to forward one lawsuit to the Supreme Court; a case out of Pennsylvania asking that ballots received after Election Day be tossed out.  

Even if Mr Trump's lawyers win the case, there likely are not enough ballots to make a meaningful difference in the race.  

Ultimately, it's extremely unlikely that Mr Trump's legal challenges will change the results of the election.  

Barring irrefutable, damning evidence of an enormous voter fraud conspiracy, it is unlikely that any judge is going to throw out ballots that were cast legally. To do so would be to undermine the very core of American democracy, and it is unlikely any judge - conservative or otherwise - will take that in stride. Mr Trump cannot win unless legally cast ballots are disqualified.