Coronavirus surges are helping flip swing states back for Biden, analysis suggests
The trend mirrors national polling, which shows the president behind by about 8 points
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.For months now, the president has been incorrectly assuring Americans that the country is “rounding the turn” on Covid-19.
At a rally on Sunday in North Carolina, for example, he said, “We're rounding the turn, our numbers are incredible,” the day after new daily coronavirus infections hit a record-breaking 83,757 people, signalling that the US has entered a feared “third wave” of the disease. Now according to an analysis from Vox, the president’s handling of coronavirus in states with major Covid surges is beginning to affect his polling numbers, even among Republicans who previously supported him.
In Wisconsin, where cases jumped 36 per cent in the last two weeks, various polls show that voters trust Joe Biden’s potential handling of the pandemic more, and find the president behind the Democrat by a range of 6.8 up to a staggering 17 per cent. Mr Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, after it went for Barack Obama twice in the two previous presidential contests.
It's a similar situation in Michigan, which Mr Trump also flipped in the 2016 election. Cases there are up 73 per cent in the last two weeks, and polls put former Vice President Biden head of Trump by roughly 7 to 8 points.
Change Research, a firm evaluating the pandemic’s impact on voting preferences, also found that people who voted for Mr Trump in 2016 and now live in states with higher Covid rates are 50 per cent more likely to support Mr Biden than those in places where the virus is under better control.
Polling numbers should always be considered with a grain of salt, as elections are unpredictable even without a pandemic, but nonetheless these trends in support mirror those at the national level.
The RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows Mr Biden leading by about 8 points.
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments