Arizona 2020: What’s at stake in a crucial swing state

Long coveted by the Democrats, Arizona might just give Joe Biden what he needs

Donald Trump waves to supporters in Bullhead City, AZ (AP)

To paraphrase the old saying, demographics may or may not be destiny when it comes to a key sunbelt state.

What’s at stake

If Joe Biden fails to win Pennsylvania, there are a few realistic (if tricky) ways for him to capture the presidency. And unlike in previous elections, many of the more plausible ones run through Arizona – a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic nominee since 1996, and before that, since 1948.

At 11 electoral votes, the state is a bigger prize than the critical Midwestern state of Wisconsin. And coupled with at one or two major swing states where Mr Biden is pulling ahead (Florida and Michigan, for instance), it could help him lock up the election without recouping all of Hillary Clinton’s most painful losses.

Last time around

Arizona never made the top tier of Clinton targets, but it did start to attract attention in the last stages of the campaign as her nationwide polling looked stable enough to tide her over. Her appeal to Latino voters across the country was overall looking strong, and since Arizona is one of the five most Latino states, she began paying serious attention to the state right at the buzzer, holding a major rally there just a week before Election Day.

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In the end, it was not to be; in the end, she lost the state by 3.55 points. However, that figure was a dramatic improvement over Barack Obama’s performance in 2008 and 2012, and the state’s place on the Democratic target list was assured.

On the ground

Arizona’s significance has been clear since the election began, and Donald Trump has staged rallies there in an effort to claw back worrying poll numbers that show him falling behind. Mr Biden and Kamala Harris have appeared there too, but at muted events designed to ensure safe social distancing.

The state is also home to a crucial Senate race, in which Republican incumbent Martha McSally is fighting off Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. Ms McSally was appointed (rather than elected) shortly after losing Arizona’s other Senate seat to Kyrsten Sinema in the November 2018 midterms.

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Ms McSally’s polling has put her consistently behind, though some surveys show the race tightening. Mr Trump recently humiliated her at a rally by rushing her to finish her remarks, telling her: “They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on, let’s go.”

The home stretch

Mr Biden’s lead in Arizona has been consistent, but narrow; only a few points separate him from the president, who has visited the state to fire up his base as polling day nears. Early indications, however, are that Democrats have voted early in unprecedented numbers, while Republican turnout so far is lagging behind them. As the Democrats have make aggressive efforts to turn out younger and Latino voters, the overall number of early ballots cast is closing in on the total number of votes cast in 2016.