2020 election polls: Biden smashes ad spend record as GOP pollster says ‘impossible’ for Trump to be re-elected after debate

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Joe Biden came away from the second and last presidential debate with a dominant lead in snap polling, which showed him with a double-digit advantage over Donald Trump.

Despite the Republican president’s more reserved approach to Thursday night’s clash in Nashville - which was far less chaotic and acrimonious than their previous encounter in Cleveland on 29 September - Mr Trump still came under attack on issues such as the coronavirus, race and climate change.  

Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that Trump may have won the battle of the last debate, but Biden has won the war. He says it's "impossible" for the president turning around voter sentiment this late in the election cycle.

Trump is also up against a campaign that has broken all records for its spend on television and digital advertising in a presidential election, with still more than a week to go before polls close

Despite promising to dig into his own war chest to make up the campaign funding shortfall, Trump is yet to donate his own cash to the last stage of the campaign.

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Key Points

• Trump refuses to donate to his own re-election, leaving his campaign with one third of Biden's war chest
• If Trump wins ‘my profession is done’, says GOP pollster Frank Luntz
• Snap polling after the debate shows a Biden win
• Rasmussen gives Trump a three-point lead in Florida
• Polls show Trump losing white voters crucial to his 2016 success
• GOP pollster says ‘impossible’ for Trump to beat Biden

[23 October 2020 09:25 · Gino Spocchia]

Trump retweets support, says he won

On Thursday night, Donald Trump shared almost two dozen Twitter posts claiming he won last nights debate with Joe Biden.

That’s some 21 retweets, from our counting.

(Reminder: most other polls showed the Republican president having lost to Mr Biden during their last debate, and were not conducted among Twitter users)

[23 October 2020 09:48 · Gino Spocchia]

Debate analysis: Substance vs conspiracy

The second - and final - debate was unlikely to persuade anyone’s mind this close to election day, with almost 50m Americans having already voted via mail-in and absentee ballots - a sign of the times in the coronavirus era. 

And that’s not a small number, because 130m voted in total in 2016.

Somewhat inevitably, Mr Trump’s bar was set so low for this debate, that although he scored points on style, there was little substance. 

John T Bennett has the analysis: 

[23 October 2020 10:05 · Gino Spocchia]

Hollywood says ‘Trump is a liar’

The second and final presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was a less chaotic and frenzied affair than their first clash, but that did not stop Hollywood celebrities from sharing their reaction to the encounter in Nashville.

Avengers star Mark Ruffalo said: “Trump is a liar, Biden is an honourable man who raised his boys on his own after his wife was killed in a car accident,”

Star Trek actor George Takei, also tweeted out his view, and said: “Biden sounds very clear, capable and focused. Trump, sounds like … well, Trump.”

Graeme Massie and Roisin O'Connor report: 

[23 October 2020 10:38 · Gino Spocchia]

Trump’s election chances improve 

Donald Trump's increased his election chances on online betting markets following Thursday's final presidential debate with Joe Biden, who was largely seen to have walked away as the winner.  

Bettors on British exchange Smarkets now give the Democratic challenger Joe Biden a 66 per cent chance of winning the 3 November election, down from 68 per cent before the the debate. 

Mr Trump's chances improved to 34 per cent from 32 per cent.

And despite those improved odds, betting trends on gambling websites still predict a win for Mr Biden, who holds a substantial lead in national opinion polls, and appears tied in a swathe of battleground states. 

Reuters

[23 October 2020 11:14 · Gino Spocchia]

Four key takeaways from the debate

The two 2020 presidential candidates took to the stage in Nashville on Thursday night for the second and final time, as they made their pitch to voters for the 3 November election.

Although the rhetoric from the candidates was as heated as ever, both were allowed to deliver their answers and rebuttals with little interruption from the other.

Griffin Connolly reports on the four key takeaways, here:

[23 October 2020 11:42 · Gino Spocchia]

Trump points fingers at Democrats and immigrants

The president, asked why the Republican Senate had refused for months to pass the Covid relief bill passed by the House, known as the Heroes Act, provided multiple answers. 

He claimed it includes a "bailout" for so-called irresponsible Democratic states, and that it included funding for immigrants - both groups who the president has done little to assist, let alone win over. 

As Noah Berlatsky writes, Mr Trump’s response was telling because “Republicans in general, and Trump in particular,  are not motivated by a desire to help people.”

Here’s that analysis:

[23 October 2020 12:39 · Gino Spocchia]

Biden claims win in snap debate poll

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden did a better job in the final debate on Thursday than his rival Donald Trump, according to a number of snap reaction polls.

CNN’s poll, released shortly after the debate ended on Thursday night, found that 53 per cent of viewers felt Mr Biden had won the debate, compared to 39 per cent who believed Mr Trump had done a better job.

Interestingly, Mr Trump lost all such polls in 2016 when he took part in three debates against his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Namita Singh reports: 

[23 October 2020 13:45 · Joe Sommerlad]

Biden will campaign ‘aggressively’ in final stretch, says top aide

Following his convincing performance against Trump on Thursday night, the Democratic presidential nominee is said to be preparing for an intense final 11 days of campaigning.

Speaking to reporters after the debate, Biden campaign manager Kate Bedingfield said the former vice president would be very visible going forward, and that he was “going to campaign aggressively”.

“You will see him a lot,” she said. "He’s going to be campaigning hard these last 11 days.”

“He’s going to be all across the country in our battleground states. He’s going to be fighting for every vote. You’re going to see him do in-person events. You’re going to see him do virtual events.”

On Friday, the Democrat is due in Delaware, while Trump will continue with his spree of in-person campaign rallies, with an event in Florida - a must-win state with 29 Electoral College votes at stake.  

Biden has been repeatedly ridiculed by his Republican opponent for holding smaller in-person events, which his campaign argues respect coronavirus guidelines and avoid putting lives at risk. 

[23 October 2020 14:26 · Gino Spocchia]

Another poll puts Biden ahead in Pennsylvania 

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by seven percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Muhlenberg College survey, by 51 to 44 per cent.

Back in August, the last time the pollster carried-out a survey in the swing state, Mr Biden’s lead was narrower, at four per cent, representing a three-point climb. 

The Democrat’s modest small lead in Pennsylvania comes despite president Trump’s attacks against Mr Biden’s environmental plans, which would transition the United States away from oil and towards renewable energy sources, by 2050. 

"He is going to destroy the oil industry," Mr Trump said during Thursday night’s debate. "Will you remember that, Texas? Will you remember that, Pennsylvania?"

Mr Biden, for his part, has promised to protect fracking industries in Pennsylvania, in a bid to suppress such concerns. 

[23 October 2020 15:42 · Gino Spocchia]

Astronaut casts ballot in space

Some 50 million ballots have already been cast in the 2020 US election, but not all of them will have been made in space. 

NASA astronaut Kate Rubins was able to cast her ballot from space ahead of 3 November election day, voting more than 200 miles above earth, onboard the International Space station.

Graeme Massie reports: