Parties struggle to get the vote out

Bill Clinton visited the black faithful here last week to do what every politician in America is doing as this nail-bitingly close mid-term election nears its climax: not to sell the party message to an already converted flock, but to persuade its lukewarm supporters to vote.

"The Bible would have been a different story if half the trumpeters hadn't shown up," the 42nd President thundered from the pulpit of the Jericho City of Praise on Friday evening. "And if half of you stay home on Tuesday, we'll be out of business." Mr Clinton's immediate purpose was to boost the cause of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, scion of America's most enduring political family, who has seen a once commanding lead slip away in her bid to become Governor of Maryland.

But in states across the country a similar ritual has unfolded, as Democrats and Republicans bring forth their superstars to mobilise their followers.

Barring the presidency itself, the stakes could hardly be higher. The smallest shift could see control of either the Senate or the House of Representatives (or both) change hands, while 36 of the 50 states are choosing their governors. The psychological impact could be even greater.

A Republican sweep would not only reverse the mid-terms' normal habit of punishing the party which holds the White House. It would permit President George Bush to shape the legislative agenda ahead of his own re-election bid in 2004. Conversely, triumph for the Democrats would deal a massive blow to those ambitions and extract a measure of revenge for what they see as the electoral theft of two years ago.

Rarely in democratic politics, however, will so much have been decided by so few. Though the two parties are evenly matched, it will be a miracle if turnout hits 35 per cent. As this campaign comes down to the wire, the game is no longer about making converts; what matters is convincing the already persuaded to cast their votes at all.

And no one does that better than Bill Clinton, still far and away the most compelling live performer in US politics. In another existence, Mr Clinton might have been a church minister. His present incarnation, however, has been thoroughly shaped by his humble southern origins; no white American politician has a greater empathy with blacks.

On Friday night he was in mesmerising form, as he turned an election rally into a revivalist meeting: "Are you going to show up? Are you going to blow down the walls of oppression? Are you going to build up the opportunities for your children? You'd better be there." The vast auditorium thundered with hallelujahs.

But not even America's gunslinging political pundits dare predict what happens on the night. The House, most believe, is likely to stay in Republican hands, simply because there are too few competitive seats (only 15 or 20 out of the 435 at stake) for the Democrats to make the net gain of eight they need.

But the Senate, where Republicans require a net gain of just one to recapture control, is anyone's guess. As many as 10 of this year's 34 contests are toss-ups. The Democrats are fighting to cling on to seats in Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, South Dakota and Georgia; Republican candidates face battles in New Hampshire, Arkansas, Colorado, Texas and even North Carolina.

The story is the same in many governors' races. In Florida, a dozen visits this year by President Bush, and a huge cash advantage, do not guarantee victory for his brother Jeb. As the debacle of 2000 showed, literally every vote in that state does count. If Bill McBride, the Democratic candidate, can mobilise black, Jewish and minority voters in the cause of revenge, he could yet claim the single scalp the Democrats covet most in this election season.

In Maryland too, the black vote is crucial. So inept a campaign has Ms Kennedy Townsend fought that despite her family name – and the fact that heavily Democratic Maryland hasn't chosen a Republican since the infamous Spiro Agnew 35 years ago – she is only level in the polls.

Victory now depends on congregations like that of Jericho City of Praise, in the black suburbs of Washington. "I need you to vote," she implored. "I need your friends to vote, their families and the people you go to church with."

But will they? In the closing days of this becalmed and unfocused campaign, some have detected a tiny breeze stirring Democratic sails, as economic and social issues, eclipsed first by Iraq and then the Washington area sniper, have moved to centre stage.

A batch of dismal government figures on Friday was a reminder that the country is is still struggling to escape recession. The new blunderings of Harvey Pitt, chair of the watchdog Securities and Exchange Commission, have brought corporate scandals back into the public mind. Whether the breeze will become a gust to change the balance of power on Capitol Hill, no one can tell.

At stake on Super Tuesday

House of Representatives: all 435 seats

Senate: 34 seats (20 currently held by Republicans, 14 by Democrats) out of 100

State Governors: 36 races (23 Republican-held, 11 Democratic, two Independents)

The current composition of Congress is House of Representatives: 222 Republicans, 209 Democrats, two Independents. Two seats are currently vacant

Senate: 49 Democrat, 49 Republican, one Independent, one vacant