Mayhem fears as protesters target Bush

There may be mayhem on the New York streets outside, but the Republican Convention inside the fortress of Madison Square Garden this week will exude tolerance and sweet reason, as the party makes its pitch for the moderate voters who may decide November's presidential election.

There may be mayhem on the New York streets outside, but the Republican Convention inside the fortress of Madison Square Garden this week will exude tolerance and sweet reason, as the party makes its pitch for the moderate voters who may decide November's presidential election.

Last night police were completing security measures for what will surely be the most heavily protected political gathering in US history - and for which a massive demonstration today will provide a possibly violent prologue. Up to 250,000 anti-war and anti-Bush protesters are expected.

For Mr Bush the convention will be the platform to set out his plans for a second term during his prime-time speech on Thursday evening, when he formally accepts re-nomination. As in 2000, he will position himself as leader of a party appealing to centrists as well as his conservative base.

The final convention policy platform ignores conservative demands on issues such as stem-cell research and immigration. "Conservatives were badly outflanked," said Richard Lessner, director of the American Conservative Union. "A lot of grass-root Republicans will be very unhappy."

Barely a word will be heard from the party's hard men on Capitol Hill, such as the arch-conservative Texan Tom De Lay, majority leader in the House, or Senator Rick Santorum, a relentless foe of abortion and sexual "deviancy".

Convention-goers will be treated to a procession of moderates - essential if the party is to reach out to the independents and centrists who will probably decide the outcome in November. Opening night tomorrow features Senator John McCain of Arizona, arguably the most popular politician in the land. Other speakers include Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani - both opposed to a ban on abortion and supporters of gay rights. The goal, as in 2000, is to present the party as a "big tent" in which moderates can comfortably find a home. The problem now, of course, is that the President is a known quantity, and moderation may be a harder sell.

A string of polls last week gave the President a two- or three-point lead over his Democratic opponent. Though the margin is a dead-heat in statistical terms, Mr Bush seems to have erased the slight advantage gained by John Kerry after his own convention in Boston.

Almost certainly, the turnaround reflects the impact of the campaign ads by a group of Mr Kerry's fellow Vietnam veterans, claiming he lied over parts of his war record. The claims have been largely disproved and even Mr Bush maintains he does not believe them. But they have dominated the campaign and forced Mr Kerry on to the defensive, denting his image of trustworthiness.

Republican strategists believe any demonstrations this week will work to their advantage, raising fears among undecided voters that the Democrats are extremists - just as anti-Vietnam violence at the Democratic convention in 1968 helped Richard Nixon, the Republican candidate, to assemble his "silent majority" of voters.

The Republicans chose New York for the convention, and picked a date as close to 11 September as possible, in a shameless bid to exploit the approaching third anniversary of the twin towers attacks. Mr Bush's appearance among the rescuers, with a bullhorn in his hand, is regarded as the finest hour of his presidency.

But hostility to him personally in this Democratic city, and to the war in Iraq, has forced him to scrap plans for a visit to Ground Zero. He may spend just a few hours in New York on Thursday before heading straight back to the campaign trail.