In kitchens across Iowa, Democrats prepare for their day as kingmakers

To prepare for the imminent onslaught of democracy, Linda Wise has been cleaning her house and baking banana bread and pecan slices. She has also had to remember what happened four years ago.

Later today, as the people of Iowa select which Democratic candidate they want to challenge on George Bush in November's presidential election, the part-time nurse will be hosting one of the almost 2,000 caucuses at which voters will demonstrate their preference. Most of the caucuses taking place across the state will be held in church halls or schools but in the small town of Winterset, situated in the heart of Madison County with its famous covered bridges, Mrs Wise will be welcoming people into her blue painted, clapboard house.

"This will be the second caucus we've held in the house," said Mrs Wise, a friendly, straight-talking 57-year-old who takes her role in the political selection process very seriously. "At a normal precinct, you might expect just 7 to 11 people. But this year I'm expecting anywhere up to 50.

"There is more interest in this presidential election than any I have seen since 1988."

She explained: "I think it's a combination of things: people's dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the country today, concerns about what is happening in Iraq right now, regardless of whether anybody was for or against the war."

As well as stimulating the most interest for many years - pundits predict the number of voters could be 100,000 compared to 60,000 in 2000 - the battle for Iowa is also likely to be one of the closest races the state has seen.

A poll released yesterday placed the Massachusetts Senator John Kerry at the front of the field on 26 points, ahead of the North Carolina Senator John Edwards on 23, the former Vermont governor Howard Dean on 20 and Dick Gephardt, the Missouri Congressman, on 18. But experts say that, with just eight points separating the four front-runners and with the polls suggesting many people are undecided, any one of those candidates could win.

Given the importance of this contest for any candidate hoping to go on and win the party's nomination, the process of the caucuses appears terribly basic and elementary. In truth, while the rules can seem somewhat confusing - forcing Mrs Wise and other "precinct captains" to get out their instructions from four years ago - it is the ultimate in participatory democracy.

The rules go something like this: At 6.30pm tonight, with voters having driven or trudged through freezing weather, the caucuses will be called to order, voters will be asked to sign in and register and officials will be elected for the evening. Only registered Democrats or Independents can participate in a Democratic caucus though Republicans could, if they wished, show up and register as a Democrat on the night.

Half-an-hour later, perhaps after a slice of banana bread and a cup of coffee, people will be asked to divide into various groups depending on who they support. In the case of Mrs Wise's caucus, it means supporters for Mr Dean would have to stand in the large kitchen while supporters of Mr Gephardt might gather in the living room, with supporters of Mr Kerry and Mr Edwards taking up position at either end of the dining room. Lord knows where she will find room for any supporter of the left-wing Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

At that part of the process there is ample opportunity for small-scale chaos. For a candidate's group to remain "viable" it has to have at least 15 per cent of all voters. If some groups do not have enough, members of a viable candidates' group will call out to their friends and neighbours in the non-viable groups to come and join them. A secret ballot? You must be out of your mind.

Pity poor Mrs Wise. Her dining room has a glass-fronted cabinet full of delicate looking china, there is a similar piece of furniture in her sitting room. One dreads to imagine the damage that could be done if Mr Gephardt's supporters, for instance, are forced to switch allegiance halfway through the evening to the more youthful Mr Edwards, squeezing past the smug-looking supporters of the front-runner Mr Kerry. Mrs Wise says that, in her 30 or more years of caucus-going, she has never known violence to break out. Then again, her best china has never before been so threatened.

When voters are satisfied, delegates are appointed to each viable group according to a mathematical formula based on the number of people involved.

These "bound" delegates will go the county convention to vote for delegates to represent them at the state convention and then the national Democratic convention in Boston this summer.

What Winterset's most famous son would have made of this complicated procedure is not known. But Marion Robert Morrison, better known as the actor John Wayne, who was born in a small, wooden house about a mile from Mrs Wise's home in May 1907, was famously straight-talking and a supporter of the "communist-hunting" Joseph McCarthy.

Were he still alive, it is unlikely that the man who won an Oscar for his portrayal of Rooster Cogburn in True Grit would be making up the numbers for Mr Kucinich.

But amid the minutiae of the process, it is easy to lose track of the bigger picture taking shape across state and country as the Democrats seek to dislodge a polarising president whose personal ratings remain extremely high for this stage of the political cycle.

While Mr Dean retains the lead in the national Democratic polls, here in rural Iowa, he has seen his numbers fall during the past week as voters have been roused by the more positive campaigns of Mr Kerry and Mr Edwards. Mr Edwards, the usually soft-spoken southerner, whose support just a few weeks ago stood in single digits, has experienced a surge that has taken experienced political observers by surprise.

On Saturday evening, he was forced to keep a crowd waiting for him at a community centre in Iowa Falls, because he had been delayed by people wanting to speak to him at a previous event. "People will ask you if I am ready for this," said an energetic Mr Edwards, his delivery at times sounding like that of a rousing Baptist minister. "I have been getting ready for this fight all my life.

"If you give me a shot at George Bush, I'll give you the White House." His supporters were delighted. "He is not negative, he is absolutely not negative. I think people have got fed up with the negativity," said Delmarie Chaplin, 61, a part-time nurse. "He was a trial lawyer and if was tough enough to take on all those big corporations he is tough enough to take on George Bush."

But as Mr Edwards and all the other candidates realise, it will be a long and arduous process before one faces Mr Bush in the presidential contest on 2 November. That process starts in earnest tonight.

The state that makes presidents

History suggests that the Iowa caucuses have always had an influence on the eventual outcome of the nomination battle.

In 1972, George McGovern, a runner-up in Iowa, overcame Edmund Muskie for the Democratic nomination, although Richard Nixon won the presidential contest. In 1976, Gerald Ford, the incumbent, and Jimmy Carter won in Iowa. Four years later, Mr Carter, the then President, won again in Iowa, but lost the presidential election to Ronald Reagan, who in Iowa had been a runner up to George Bush.

In 1984 Walter Mondale beat Gary Hart in the Democratic nomination in Iowa but lost to Mr Reagan in the presidential contest. Four years later Mr Bush, the then Vice-President, came third to Robert Dole and Pat Robertson in Iowa but won the overall nomination. He also won the presidential contest that year, beating Michael Dukakis, who had come third in Iowa.

In 1992 Bill Clinton came third in Iowa but won the nomination and the presidential contest. In 1996 Mr Dole won the Republican contest in Iowa but lost the presidential election. In 2000, the current President Bush won in Iowa, as did Al Gore.