Mapped: Charting Hurricane Rafael’s path through the Gulf of Mexico

The Category 2 storm is forecast to weaken over the next few days as it churns westward in the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Rafael weakened to a Category 2 storm early Thursday morning after the storm walloped Cuba, knocking out the entire country’s power grid.

The system, with maximum wind speeds of 105mph, was moving slower through the Gulf of Mexico and heading northwest.

Forecasters said it was anticipated to turn to the west later in the day, and move in that direction through the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center, whose hurricane hunters are investigating the storm, expects Rafael to weaken over the next few days.

A tourist from China tries to hold his umbrella as Hurricane Rafael passes by Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday. The hurricane is heading westward through the weekend. (REUTERS/Norlys Perez)

While watches and warnings were no longer in effect for Rafael, Cuba will see up to four more inches of rain on Thursday. That would bring total rainfall from Rafael to 12 inches in portions of western Cuba. Mudslides and flash flooding are still possible in the Caribbean country, which was recovering from another hurricane that killed at least six people two weeks ago.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Rafael will stall there for the next few days. (NOAA NHC)

Ocean swells generated by the hurricane are expected to spread across the Gulf from east to west over the next several days.

“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the hurricane center warned.

Lights from a car illuminate a Havana street after Cuba’s energy grid suffered a complete blackout during Hurricane Rafael’s landfall. The system was a Category 3 hurricane when it hit the country. (REUTERS/Norlys Perez)

In addition, tropical-storm-force winds are expected for the Dry Tortugas — islands near Key West — through the morning.

While Rafael meanders in the Gulf, it remains unclear exactly how much the US will be affected. It will likely never make landfall.

“Everyone along the Gulf coast should closely monitor forecast updates. The trend is favoring less impacts from Rafael this weekend and early next week,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in a statement.

People run on the street as Hurricane Rafael passes by Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to bring more heavy rain to the island on Thursday. (REUTERS/Norlys Perez)

“Dry air and intense wind shear will tear Rafael apart in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane will quickly lose wind intensity as it approaches the coast. There is a possibility that Rafael could end up meandering in the Gulf off the coast of Louisiana and never make landfall in the U.S. as it falls apart into a cluster of thunderstorms.”

AccuWeather meteorologists said Wednesday, before the hurricane hit Cuba, that it could bring as many as 15 inches of rain to parts of the Southeast. Florida was already hit with gusty winds and pelted by showers on Wednesday.

A map shows Hurricane Rafael’s path on Thursday morning. The storm has weakened a bit since striking Cuba. (NOAA National Hurricane Center)

This week, other Gulf Coast states have seen severe weather, including tornadoes.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season was forecast to be well above average and warm waters in the Gulf — more likely due to climate change — have made for ripe hurricane conditions.