Election Day weather forecast is out - and conditions could help determine who wins

Wet weather is known to hurt turnout among voters who only occasionally vote

The forecast for Election Day is out - and rainy conditions could impact voter turnout in several states and help decide the winner.

Voters have already started to head to the polls for early voting, but Tuesday is the official Election Day when America will decide between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

More than 20 states could see showers or thunderstorms next Tuesday, as a cold front sweeps across the country.

“The middle of the country is the area to watch for possible weather disruptions at the polls. Michigan and Wisconsin are two swing states where we could be dealing with wet weather on Election Day,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said Tuesday night.

Weather can play an important part on election day, as rainy or cold conditions can lead people to skip waiting in line for hours to cast their ballot. In swing states, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, that could be a deciding factor in states where the expected victor is projected to only win by a few thousand votes.

Richard Nixon may have beaten John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election if the weather had worsened in several key states, according to a study released in 2007. Heavy rainfall can also hurt turnout among voters who only occasionally vote, according to research that was conducted last year.

People wait in line for early voting in Houston last week. Texas is one of several states that could see significant rain and flooding through Election Day ((Raquel Natalicchio/Houston Chronicle via AP))

“The majority of voters are very dedicated and will find a way to get to the polls unless there is extreme weather going on such as a major snowstorm, torrential rainfall or severe thunderstorms,” Senior Vice President of AccuWeather and President of State College, Pennsylvania Borough Council Evan Myers told the forecasting agency.

In 2020, the weather was generally mild, with essentially no precipitation. There was some precipitation in the Northwest and parts of New England.

This year, however, could be a different story. The weather forecasting company said there is a risk of inclement weather across parts of the Gulf Coast, Great Lakes, New England and central US.

“At least 75% of the lower 48 states will be dry for Election Day, including the heavy population zones along the Interstate 95 corridor of the East and the West, including California and Arizona,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

Voters fill out ballots for the presidential election in Detroit on Monday. The Great Lakes region could see showers on Election Day, which could help decrease turnout (REUTERS/Rebecca Cook)

Significant rainfall and possible flash flooding is expected Saturday through Election Day across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa.

“It will be warm out ahead of this front, so we expect some thunderstorms in places like Little Rock, Memphis, and maybe as far north as southern Illinois. The lower to mid-Mississippi Valley extending into the western Tennessee Valley could be dealing with thunderstorms on Election Day,” said Pastelok.

Thunderstorms and lightning could be disruptive or dangerous if voters have to wait outside at polling places, he noted.

Showers are also possible in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, New England and Upper Midwest regions.

Weather in other swing states will be largely partly cloudy on Election Day, and shouldnt impact turnout in those areas.

High temperatures will range between the 70s and low 80s next week in the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. In the Southwest, Arizona is also forecast to see highs in the low 70s. Nevada will be a bit cooler.