US-Russia relations fail to improve in Trump's first year and they are likely to get worse

‘We are locked in a cycle of sanctions and confrontation. The US and Russia are at war in all but the military aspect … God willing, we will manage to avoid that’

The Kremlin understands Trump is of little use on Russia policy, but it has not yet given up completely (AFP/Getty)

One year ago, much of the Russian elite was elated at the prospect of a Trump presidency. Duma deputies sipped champagne and applauded while jingoistic commentators performed victory dances on Twitter. The “Russophobe” Hillary Clinton had been defeated; in her place was an exceptionalist alpha male using divisive politics to get his way – he was a man they all understood.

Things soon changed. Already by the end of February, the Kremlin was sending out messages that things were not OK. Trump and his administration were now fair game for criticism on state TV propaganda shows. Then came new sanctions, considered the low point of relations last summer, then tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomatic staff.

A year into the Trump presidency, Moscow can look back on 12 months of awful, and worsening, relations – a year in which confrontation became the default position.

“When Trump was inaugurated, people thought that it would be possible to reach agreement on the basic of pragmatic mutual interests,” says Dmitry Trenin, the long-time head of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, considered to be close to the Russian policy-making elite. “Over the year people realised he is blocked by Congress, by bureaucracy and by the media.”

The Kremlin continues to make a distinction between the president and his administration. Trump, by and large, is still viewed positively; he caused a breakdown in US politics, and that, for Moscow, can only a good thing. Bar a few early episodes, state media has generally presented a sympathetic picture of the US President, with Vladimir Putin even offering words of support at key junctures.

But Trump’s administration is loathed – dismissed as “unprofessional” and “Russophobic”. There are few significant political channels of communication between the two countries today. This point was not lost on Richard Haass, the former US diplomat and current head of the influential Council for Foreign Relations, who this week completed a working trip to Moscow. “I am struck by how little there is to the US-Russian relationship – less interaction now than during much of Cold War,” he wrote on Twitter.

The Kremlin understands Trump is of little use on Russian policy, but it has not yet given up completely. “Putin is still trying to work with the President as much as he can,” says Trenin. “He’s unlikely to be impeached and the 2020 election is unpredictable.”

Political tensions are also reflected in Russian public opinion. A poll by the independent Levada Centre earlier this month suggested that as many as seven in 10 Russians consider America to be Russia’s enemy. By contrast, only three out of 10 said Ukraine was an enemy.

From this low point, things are likely to get much worse. The ongoing Mueller investigation into undue Russian influence in the 2016 elections is likely to continue to dig up dirt. But even larger sparks are likely to fly within days – when the State Department publishes a list of individuals considered “exposed” to the Kremlin, as it has been asked to do by Congress.

Moscow has been full of speculation on the contents of this report. According to the Kommersant newspaper, approximately 50 names will be included in the final list; that number swells to 300 if family members are included. The field of potential candidates is huge, says Mark Galeotti, senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague. It is, after all, a rare Russian oligarch who has not had some dealings with the Kremlin. "The problem is that looks very much like an instrument without a purpose," says Galeotti.

US officials have stressed that sanctions will not follow inclusion in this list. But that has not stopped worried businessmen from engaging in desperate lobbying efforts to keep their names off the list. Their reasons are understandable, says the independent political expert Maria Lipman: “Anyone on the list will be considered toxic goods, and doing business with them, or securing finance for their projects will be near impossible. It is impossible to see how this turn will not contribute to a further deterioration in relations.”

Moscow has offered few clues about how it will respond to any moves against its privileged business elite. “Mr Putin is too canny a politician to ever ask the US to show kindness,” says Lipman. “But we know that the foreign minister is due in Washington, so such issues are likely on the table.”

In recent public comments on the matter, Putin – who is the only man who matters in foreign policy – said that Russia would analyse and respond to the reality of any sanctions. “Illegal sanctions” would lead to a worsening in relations, he warned: “Nothing good can come out of that, but it doesn’t depend on us. It depends first and foremost on the American side.”

President Trump has little room to manoeuvre. Any moves to dampen the influence of sanctions are likely to be met with a fierce reaction from Congress. Last week, congressmen and women upped the pressure with a new report entitled “Putin’s asymmetric attack on democracy”. In the opening paragraph, the authors noted the Kremlin’s use of an “asymmetrical arsenal of invasions, cyberattacks, disinformation, support for fringe political groups and the weaponisation of energy resources, organised crime, and corruption.”

They are likely right on one thing: Putin will be considering an asymmetrical intervention here too. Throughout his career, the Russian President has prided himself on surprise actions. But his options are limited. An attack on American business elites, who are against sanctions, seems counterproductive. An aggressive response will meanwhile trigger a further cycle of sanctions.

“We are locked in a cycle of sanctions and confrontation,” says Trenin. “The US and Russia are at war in all but the military aspect … God willing, we will manage to avoid that.”