Democrats see hopes of revenge in Florida dwindle

America is in the last days of campaigning for the mid-terms that could see the Republicans win control of Congress

This is where the Democrats' revenge is supposed to start. Here in the never-never land of Florida's Gold Coast, epicentre of the shambles that was the 2000 presidential election in the state.

Two years ago, Palm Beach county, which has a large black community and one of the highest concentrations of normally Democratic Jewish voters in America, gave the ultra- conservative populist Pat Buchanan, the Reform party's candidate, one of his best results anywhere in the country. The same Buchanan called Congress "Israeli-occupied territory" and warns that white America is drowning in a sea of blacks and Hispanics.

It happened, of course, because of the infamous "butterfly" ballot paper, which led thousands of people who thought they were voting for Al Gore to cast their vote for the old bruiser Buchanan. Those lost Gore votes were enough to hand Florida to George Bush by 0.01 per cent of the popular vote, and with it the White House.

But now it's payback time. George might not be running in 2002. But Jeb Bush is, for a second term as Governor. Democrats, fired by a desire for revenge and with their job supposedly made easier by new touch-screen voting machines, will turn out en masse to evict Jeb Bush and also deliver a fearsome psychological blow to big brother's re-election hopes in 2004. At least, that was the theory.

With five days to go, Bill McBride, the Tampa Bay lawyer and Vietnam veteran who unexpectedly defeated Janet Reno, Bill Clinton's former attorney general, in the Democratic primary, is trailing Bush in every poll, by a margin of between 6 and 10 points.

At first glance, Mr McBride is exactly the sort of Democrat to give Jeb trouble; a real Floridian and hulk of a man with a folksy, arm-around-the-shoulder manner and the impeccable military credentials in a state full of bases, including the US headquarters of any campaign against Iraq. Who better to bridge the gap between the two Floridas? The traditionally Democratic south is full of pensioners and immigrants, both Latino and from the cold winters of the US north-east, while the heavily Republican north, stretching westward into the Florida panhandle, is spiritually part of the Deep South and is also known as "the Redneck Riviera".

But it hasn't worked out like that. In the south, where he needs to be 20 points ahead if he is to offset Mr Bush's dominance of the north, Mr McBride's lead is in single digits. Southern Florida's leading newspapers, with the exception of the Palm Beach Post, have endorsed Mr Bush.

After an early surge, which worried the Governor, the Democratic campaign is stalled. Part of the fault is Mr McBride's. Though he makes much of the contrast between his small-town origins and his opponent as a member of America's new royal family, Mr McBride is a political novice. Organisation is not his strong suit, nor is smooth public speaking or the vital art of staying relentlessly on message. "He's on an unbelievable learning curve," says an old friend. Mr McBride will typically say: "I don't know much about the political side of this."

Then there's the Bush factor – not only connections, but just as important, money. The Democrats cannot match the impact of a dozen visits by a popular president. Though resources have been poured into Mr McBride's effort, they cannot match the estimated $35m (£23m) spent by Mr Bush – much of it the unregulated "soft money" theoretically to be banned after 5 November.

But there is more to Jeb than money and connections. With George in the White House, it's easy to forget that the younger Bush was once considered the political heir. He was the articulate conservative and the one who spoke the fluent Spanish – his wife is Mexican.

Had Jeb won the governorship when he first ran in 1994, he rather than George might have been the Bush on the Republican ticket in 2000.

While George was winning in Texas, Jeb lost to Lawton Chiles, another folksy Democrat with whom Mr McBride is often compared. But Mr Bush softened the confrontational style that cost him dear against Mr Chiles, and in 1998 won by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, a comfortable margin in Florida.

In office, his educational reforms have had mixed reviews, but he got on the right side of the environmental issue by opposing oil drilling off Florida's coast in the Gulf of Mexico. And much Democratic digging has failed to produce evidence that Mr Bush manipulated the chaotic 2000 aftermath in Florida for his brother's advantage.

If there is an issue, it is education, but Mr McBride has failed to show how he would pay for his ambitious plans when Florida is running into a budget crunch, as are most American states. By and large, Mr Bush is reckoned to have performed adequately. Matt Corrigan, professor of politics at North Florida University in Jacksonville, said: "Swing voters will decide this election, and in general they give him a pass grade."

To win, Bill McBride must re-build that angry Jewish-black-immigrant coalition of 2000. But time is fast running out.